v1.29

Atlas Est. version history

Every change to how the estimate is calculated, and the day it landed.

Atlas Est. is one number per card, built from seven markets (how it works →). The formula improves as we learn: a new market joins, a class of wrong matches gets caught, a source turns out to deserve less trust. Each improvement ships as a version and re-prices every card the same day.

What it means for the numbers you see

On a version day a card’s Atlas Est. can jump without anything happening in the market. That is why the graphs mark those days with an “Est. vX” flag, and why every return on OP-Atlas — the market overview’s 7D / 14D / 30D / all-time, the heatmap, the ▲▼ tags — skips them: a recalculation is never counted as a market move. The market-value chart is the exception on purpose: it shows the total value tracked, steps included, and the flags explain each step.

Versions

  1. v6.4
    When several markets agree a card's price has moved, one leftover old price can no longer hold the estimate back — and a lone CardTrader listing can no longer vouch for a price on its own.
  2. v6.3
    A hand-confirmed source now only tells us it's the right card — it no longer gets extra say over the price, and a confirmed listing that has since drifted far from what we checked loses that confirmation. Prints of the same number also stop sharing one marketplace listing: when a listing sits on two prints, only the print it really belongs to keeps its price.
  3. v6.2
    CardTrader listings now count much less toward the estimate — one lone, sky-high asking price on a thin market can no longer inflate a card's price.
  4. v6.1
    eBay sales that are wildly out of line with a card's real value are now filtered out, and Japanese prices lean a little more on Cardmarket.
  5. v6.0
    eBay real sold prices now feed the estimate — the 7th market, and the first based purely on completed sales.
  6. v5.7
    When trusted sources clash wildly, we now drop the clearly-broken price instead of letting it skew the estimate.
  7. v5.6
    Now remembers each card's usual price, so one odd listing can't suddenly hijack the estimate.
  8. v5.5
    When we hand-check a price and confirm it's right, we now trust that price the most.
  9. v5.4
    We now lean more on what cards actually sold for, not just the asking price.
  10. v5
    Started trusting real sale prices over asking prices, and ignoring prices that are way too high or too low.
  11. v3
    Made our price for Japanese cards more accurate.
  12. v1
    First version — blends prices from several shops into one fair estimate.

How Atlas Est. works → · Market overview →

Atlas Est. Version History — Every Change to the Estimate · OP-Atlas