17 October 2026marketanalysiseb05op17

Will EB-05 Wake the Market Up — or Is the Bottom Already In? One Piece TCG Market Report, 17 Oct 2026

One Piece TCG market report — 17 October 2026 · Market data as of 16 October 2026 · Analysis by OP-Atlas · Prices are Atlas Est.

Over the past month the One Piece TCG market has been under steady pressure. Prices fell across many sets and rarity tiers, and Japanese prints were clearly hit harder than English ones. Even the high-end collectibles that did well over the summer have started to give back what they gained.

But the latest data is starting to show something worth watching.

📈 The market's 7-day performance is back in positive territory at +0.7%. Several character indices are recovering, OP-17 has won back part of what it lost, and the sharp decline of late September to early October is slowing down.

The other big factor is EB-05.

ONE PIECE Heroines Edition vol. 2 is scheduled for release in English on 30 October and in Japanese on 31 October — with popular female characters, new artwork and chase cards that could pull collectors back into the market.

So the key question is...

Has the market already been through the worst of the correction? And can EB-05 spark a broad recovery across the One Piece TCG market?

Our view today: the market is showing signs of stabilising, but there isn't enough evidence yet that the bottom is in. EB-05 has the potential to drive demand for some groups of cards, but a recovery of the whole market needs more than one popular set launch.

Let's look at the data 🧭

📊 1. The market at a glance, 16 October

💰 Market value: ฿29.75M

The combined estimate of the 11,524 cards priced on OP-Atlas, counting one copy of each card.

Market performance:

7 days: +0.7%
14 days: −1.4%
30 days: −6.4%
Since tracking began on 18 June: −2.3%

Market value is not performance

Market value is the sum of the Atlas Est. of every priced card in the system, counting one copy of each. It can rise when new cards are added, even if no existing card's price went up at all.

Performance measures the price change of the same set of cards that can be compared at both the start and the end of the period, weighted by value — leaving out newly added cards and the days affected by changes to how prices are estimated.

This matters a lot once EB-05 launches: market value may rise because new cards enter the system. That does not mean existing card prices are recovering.

📌 To learn more, the Methodology page on OP-Atlas explains how the Atlas Est. is calculated.

📉 2. Selling pressure is easing — but has the market really stopped falling?

30-day performance is still −6.4%, and the 14-day figure of −1.4% confirms that the latest rebound hasn't undone the damage of the past month.

Still, 7-day performance has turned positive at +0.7%.

That is a change worth watching. Many price charts show that after the fast decline of late September to early October, the market has started moving in a narrower range — even though prices remain below where they were.

Momentum stands at 45 (Neutral) and volatility at 30 (Low), consistent with a market that is slowing down.

But lower volatility doesn't mean prices can't fall further, and one positive week of performance doesn't confirm that the market has turned up.

Breadth is the most important warning sign

Over the past 30 days, of the 11,442 cards with comparable data:

🔺 2,803 cards rose more than 1%
➖ 1,989 cards moved within ±1%
🔻 6,650 cards fell more than 1%

Of the cards that moved beyond ±1%, about 70% went down.

This is a broad-based correction, not just a few expensive cards falling.

And the latest week?

🔺 2,196 cards rose more than 1%
➖ 6,646 cards moved within ±1%
🔻 2,661 cards fell more than 1%

Breadth still reads Declining: among the cards that moved meaningfully, more fell than rose.

So why is market performance positive?

Because performance is weighted by value: expensive cards move the overall figure more than a large number of cheap ones.

🏴‍☠️ Luffy may be a big reason the market turned positive

The Luffy character index makes up about 34.5% of the market value we currently track, and it rose 1.7% over 7 days.

Using today's share of value as a rough estimate, Luffy's rebound could account for about 0.6 percentage points of the market's +0.7%.

That figure is only an approximation, not an exact contribution calculation — the weights and periods of the character index can differ from the market's main performance figure.

But the point is clear:

The market can show a positive number even while most of the cards that moved meaningfully are still falling.

Our view: selling pressure may be easing, but breadth doesn't yet confirm a broad recovery.

🇯🇵 3. Japan is still the main weak spot

Comparing the two markets shows a clear difference.

🇯🇵 Japanese prints

Share of market value: 35%
Total value: ฿10.32M
30-day performance: −11.4%
7-day performance: +0.9%

🇬🇧 English prints

Share of market value: 65%
Total value: ฿19.43M
30-day performance: −3.4%
7-day performance: +0.6%

Japanese prints are about a third of the tracked market value, but over the past month they fell three times as much as English prints.

The return to +0.9% over 7 days is a good sign, but not enough to say the Japanese correction is over.

A clear example is OP-13: Carrying On His Will. In the by-language table it shows a 30-day decline of about 20.3% for Japanese prints, against just 1.8% for English ones.

Japanese sales data supports the correction picture

An analysis by CardMochi, which studies card sale prices on Yahoo! Auctions Japan, adds an interesting angle.

Across 126 card versions with enough transaction data, the median sale price over the last 30 days was 10.5% below the 90-day median as of 5 October.

The same report says the average price Japanese shops offered to buy an OP-17 box fell from about ¥20,000 in late August to ¥9,600 by 2 October.

This data uses a different market, sample and method from the Atlas Est., so it shouldn't be compared directly. The 90-day median also includes the latest 30 days, so it may understate the fall from earlier highs.

Even so, it supports the conclusion that the weakness in Japan isn't limited to an overall index — it also shows up in real sale prices and in buy prices for sealed product.

If you're interested, search for CardMochi's analysis "Is the One Piece Card Market Down?" for the full data and method.

If the global market really is passing its bottom, we need to see Japan recover steadily for several weeks — not just one positive week.

💎 4. Rarity tiers: the premium end is still under pressure

The Atlas Rarity Index tracks cards priced at $1 and up in each rarity tier, weighting every card equally. It reflects how the typical card in each tier is moving, rather than a few high-value cards.

30-day performance:

Super Rare (SR): −2.6%
Rare (R): −3.0%
Uncommon (UC): −5.7%
Common (C): −5.7%
Leader: −5.5%
Secret Rare (SEC): −8.4%
Special (SP): −8.9%
Manga: −6.7%
Treasure Rare (TR): −14.6%

Every rarity tier is still negative over 30 days.

SR fell the least at 2.6%, while SP and SEC fell 8.9% and 8.4% respectively.

Treasure Rare took the sharpest correction: −14.6% over 30 days and −39.5% over 90 days. The TR index holds only 12 cards, though, so a few cards can move it a lot.

On the other hand, Manga is still up 7.6% against 90 days ago, despite falling 6.7% in the latest month.

Weekly signals are improving in some tiers:

✅ SR: +0.6%
✅ Manga: +0.7%
✅ UC: +0.4%

But Commons are still down 1.3%, and Treasure Rare fell another 3.0%.

So this is a recovery that hasn't spread evenly yet.

For EB-05, a new set can create excitement around its chase cards, but that doesn't mean the pressure on all premium cards disappears.

A lasting recovery doesn't need every tier to rise together — but it should show demand spreading to a wider range of cards.

📦 5. What do the sets tell us?

The Sets table on OP-Atlas shows each set's performance for its base product, excluding prize and promo cards that share a set code. The figures are value-weighted, which makes them different from the Rarity Index, where every card counts equally.

OP-17: The World's Strongest Warriors is a clear example of the gap between a short-term rebound and a lasting recovery.

7 days: +4.5%
30 days: −14.7%
Since it was first priced in late August: −29.6%

OP-17's rebound in the latest week is a good sign, but after falling almost 30% since tracking began, one week up isn't enough to confirm the set has bottomed.

OP-16: The Time of Battle shows a different picture.

30 days: −15.0%
7 days: −1.0%
Since 18 June: −50.1%

Although the value-weighted index fell sharply, the typical card in the set moved close to 0% over the past month — suggesting the decline may be concentrated in the expensive cards rather than in most of the set.

Other sets:

OP-13: −9.0% over 30 days
OP-01 Romance Dawn: −1.7%
OP-05 Awakening of the New Era: −2.9%
PRB-01 Premium Booster -The Best-: −1.4%
EB-03 One Piece Heroines Edition: −9.6%
EB-02 Anime 25th Collection: −1.8%

Notably, EB-03 — the previous Heroines Extra Booster — fell 9.6% over 30 days, while EB-02 held its prices better.

That's an important test for the optimistic view of EB-05.

A popular theme or collectors' favourite characters doesn't make a set immune to pressure on the market as a whole.

In a median analysis of qualifying sets, too, the typical card in many sets is still falling or moving near its earlier level. The number of sets included can vary with the scope and conditions of the dataset, so the value-weighted set data and the median analysis should be read as two different views.

But both point the same way:

One week of market recovery hasn't turned into a broad recovery at the set level.

👒 6. Character indices: are collectors buying ahead of EB-05?

EB-05's big draw is its popular female characters, special artwork and high-end chase cards.

The question is whether pre-release expectations have started to show up in the related character indices.

Atlas character indices reflect the combined value of every card of that character, counting one copy of each — a measure of the character overall, not of any single card.

7-day and 30-day performance:

Main characters

Monkey D. Luffy: +1.7% / −4.5%
Roronoa Zoro: +2.5% / −3.0%
Tony Tony Chopper: +1.8% / −2.0%

Female and related characters

Nami: −1.1% / −6.4%
Nico Robin: −1.5% / −9.5%
Boa Hancock: −0.5% / −10.7%
Perona: −2.0% / −5.8%
Yamato: −0.2% / −1.6%
Uta: +10.5% / −8.0%
Rebecca: +2.5% / −0.1%
Vinsmoke Reiju: +2.3% / −3.3%
Jewelry Bonney: +0.2% / −1.8%
Charlotte Linlin: +11.3% / +6.0%

The main characters — Luffy, Zoro and Chopper — started to recover last week.

Among the female characters the picture is mixed: Uta, Rebecca, Reiju and Bonney were positive over 7 days, while Nami, Robin, Boa Hancock, Perona and Yamato kept falling.

Charlotte Linlin stands out the most, up over both the week and the month.

Interestingly, the two characters most directly tied to EB-05 expectations — Nami, and Nico Robin with her new Leader — are still negative over both 7 and 30 days.

That doesn't mean EB-05 can't create demand: the set isn't out yet, and an index of all of a character's cards can't predict the price of one new chase card.

The fairest conclusion is:

So far there's no broad rise in the main female character indices ahead of EB-05's release.

EB-05 is still a possible catalyst, but not yet evidence that a recovery has begun.

🔥 7. EB-05: a potential catalyst, not a guaranteed recovery

EB-05 — ONE PIECE Heroines Edition vol. 2 — is one of the most closely watched products of late October.

Bandai's official product information lists the English version for release on 30 October, at a suggested retail price of US$4.99 per pack, with 75+2 card types in total.

Highlights include:

A new Nico Robin Leader
6 SP cards
Special artwork of popular female characters
Alternate Art cards drawn by Kentaro Yabuki, creator of To Love-Ru

The collector community also points to a Shirahoshi Manga as one of the key chase cards, along with SP cards of Nami and Nico Robin and Leader Parallels of several female characters.

To check the details, search for "ONE PIECE Heroines Edition vol. 2" on Bandai's official product pages, or see the community's card overviews and chase lists.

These elements really can attract collectors: well-known characters, standout artwork and premium chase cards can draw interest even while the rest of the market is correcting.

Pre-order demand shows strong interest — not that demand will last

A community pre-order comparison published on 16 October reports that only 2 of the 143 US stores it tracks were still taking EB-05 pre-orders.

The same report shows another set of figures: only 5 of 22 stores across 6 countries were still taking orders.

The lowest TCGplayer listing in the report was about US$344.92, with a market price of about US$355.36.

These figures suggest high interest and a perception of scarcity before release, but they should be read with care: they come from listings and pre-order status, not from confirmed sales or final quantities.

A sold-out store doesn't tell us how much stock it will actually receive at allocation, and the US situation may differ from Thailand and Japan.

To check the details, search for the EB-05 pre-order comparison posted in the OnePieceTCG community on Reddit on 16 October.

So how could EB-05 affect the market?

One: bring collectors back
If the set is well received, collectors may come back to open packs, buy singles and take more interest in older cards of their favourite characters.

Two: lift prices for some groups of cards
If demand concentrates on Nami, Robin, Boa Hancock, Shirahoshi or certain rarity tiers, those cards — and some related older cards — could outperform the market as a whole.

Three: change the mood
A popular release can create buzz on social media, increase trading activity and revive interest in sealed product at a time when collector confidence has softened.

None of these guarantees a broad market recovery, though.

High pre-order prices may reflect speculation and limited supply more than lasting demand. Early single prices may fall as packs are opened and more cards reach the market.

At the same time, money spent on the new set may simply reduce what's spent on older cards, rather than adding to the total going into the market.

So we need to separate EB-05 creating launch excitement from EB-05 creating sustained demand across the whole market.

📅 8. The release calendar sets up the next test

EB-05 isn't launching into an otherwise empty calendar.

OP-18: The Dominance of God and the Heroines Gift Collection are scheduled for English release on 20 November, with the Japanese OP-18 on 21 November.

The Heroines Gift Collection contains:

2 EB-05 packs
70 card sleeves
10 promo cards with new artwork

That means interest in this product line and its female characters could carry on into November.

On the other hand, several products will compete for collectors' budgets within a short window.

Money may simply rotate from one product to the next without increasing the total spent in the market.

You can check the schedule in Bandai's product announcements and in the October–November One Piece TCG release calendars on independent card-game news sites.

It helps to split this into three phases:

Before release: pre-order scarcity, speculation and interest in the cards already revealed
At release: real pack openings, the first listings and chase cards entering the market
After release: whether prices and interest hold once more singles are for sale

The third phase matters most for judging whether the market has bottomed.

A rise before release only proves that the market has expectations — not that demand will still be there once the product is actually on sale.

🔮 9. Has the market bottomed? Three possible scenarios

Today's data supports three main scenarios, and none of them can be confirmed yet.

🟡 Base case: the market steadies before a selective recovery

This is the scenario we currently see as most likely.

Selling pressure is easing, several character indices are recovering, OP-17 has won back some value and 7-day performance has turned positive — with EB-05 about to act as a short-term catalyst.

In this scenario, some groups of cards and chase cards could rise well while the market as a whole moves in a range near today's level, and it takes more time to confirm the longer-term direction.

🟢 If the recovery broadens: EB-05 could help turn sentiment

A broad recovery becomes more credible if positive performance holds after the release.

We'll be watching for:

14-day performance turning positive
More cards rising than falling
Japanese prints no longer significantly underperforming English ones
The recovery spreading to older sets and premium cards

If these signals show up together, EB-05 could become the set that helps restore confidence and brings buyers back to older cards.

🔴 If the recovery fails: pre-release hype may not be enough

If most of the short-term rise came from buying ahead of EB-05, prices could weaken again once the new product adds supply, or once short-term buyers take profit and leave.

Warning signs:

Weekly performance turning negative again
Japanese prints weakening further
The SP and SEC indices continuing to fall
OP-17 giving back last week's gains

In that case EB-05 could still be a successful product without becoming a turning point for the whole market.

🧭 10. How will we know the bottom is in?

Rather than trying to name the single day prices were lowest, we can follow the signals on the OP-Atlas dashboard to judge whether the evidence for a bottom is getting stronger.

1. Performance changes direction, and keeps it
30-day performance moves from Sliding to Easing once the decline is smaller than 5%, and gradually towards Steady, within ±1.5%. Several positive 7-day readings in a row carry more weight than one bounce.

2. Breadth recovers
7-day breadth moves from Declining to Mixed — the number of cards rising and falling starts to even out — and then to Advancing. A recovery most cards take part in is more credible than an index rise driven by a few expensive cards.

3. Momentum strengthens
Momentum rises from 45 (Neutral) to Firm, at 58 or above — ideally alongside consistently positive performance.

4. Japan starts closing the gap with English
Japanese prints improve for several weeks in a row, and Japan's 30-day figure improves faster than the English one.

5. The rarity indices follow
The SP, SEC and Leader indices stop falling over 30 days, and the Treasure Rare correction slows down.

6. EB-05 holds its prices after release
We'll follow real sales and how prices behave once more cards reach the market — not just pre-order prices or the first listings.

Finally, don't forget that market value may rise when EB-05 cards are added to the system. That means we track more cards — not that the existing cards in the market are recovering.

These measures don't need to move in the same direction on the same day. But if several of them improve together, that becomes stronger evidence that the market is entering a lasting recovery.

🏴‍☠️ Conclusion: the market may be near the bottom, but EB-05 still has to prove itself

The latest Atlas data gives us reason for cautious optimism.

7-day performance has turned positive, several character indices are recovering, and the earlier sharp decline is slowing down.

But the evidence isn't complete.

The market is still down 6.4% over 30 days, 14-day performance is still negative, and 6,650 cards fell more than 1% against only 2,803 that rose.

Japanese prints are still falling harder than English ones, and every rarity tier is still negative over 30 days.

Even last week's rebound looks heavily supported by Luffy, who makes up a large share of total market value.

EB-05 has real ingredients for excitement — the female-character theme, Nico Robin's new Leader, standout artwork and high-end chase cards — and the pre-order data shows that interest before release is high.

Our view: EB-05 is more likely to spark a recovery among some groups of collectors, and to test the market's demand, than to reverse the whole correction on its own.

That view will change if the release leads to sustained demand for existing cards, improves breadth, and coincides with a clear recovery in Japan.

Until we see those signals, it's too early to declare that the bottom is in.

The next few weeks will be an important test of whether the market is starting a broad recovery or simply pausing after a difficult month.

The market may be steadying — but steadying is not the same as recovering, and EB-05 will have to prove itself with real post-release data.

🧭 Follow the market more clearly with OP-Atlas

📌 Sources, and how to check them

If you'd like to check the data yourself, you can look these up directly:

OP-Atlas: the Market Overview, Performance, Breadth, Dynamic, Character Indices, Rarity Index and Sets views, using data as of 16 October 2026
OP-Atlas Methodology: how the Atlas Est. is estimated, how performance is calculated, and the limits of the price data
Bandai official product information: search "ONE PIECE Heroines Edition vol. 2" for EB-05's product details and official release dates
CardMochi: search for the analysis "Is the One Piece Card Market Down?" for Japanese card sale data and OP-17 box buy prices
The OnePieceTCG community on Reddit: search for the EB-05 pre-order comparison posted on 16 October for store status and listed prices

These sources use different samples, price-collection methods and time periods, so their figures won't necessarily match, and each should be read with its own limits in mind.

Disclaimer

OP-Atlas is an independent project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by or connected to Bandai, Shueisha, Toei Animation or any marketplace. Market data can contain errors, delays, mismatched listings, missing data or other inaccuracies. The Atlas Estimate is an analytical estimate from the market data available — not an actual sale price or a guaranteed card value. Data coverage, liquidity, regional availability, exchange-rate movements, listing quality and each platform's methods all affect the estimate. Prices can change quickly. OP-Atlas does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the data, or any result of using it. This content is for information and entertainment only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any card. Check the data and weigh the risks yourself before you decide.

AI Disclosure: AI was used to help with research, support the data analysis, draft and edit the text, and translate it. The content and figures were reviewed before publishing.