State of the Market: Is the One Piece TCG Market Actually Slowing Down?
A deep data analysis by the OP-Atlas Admin
⚡ TL;DR
- Yes, the market is down: -3.49% over 30 days, with 56.5% of prints falling in the last week — the weakest breadth in 13 weeks.
- It's a Japan story. JP prints are -10.45% over 60 days. EN prints are +6.71% over 60 days and +13.27% over 90.
- It's not frozen, it's repricing: listings up, asks down ~15% in the ฿3k–50k range, trades still happening.
- The middle market (฿500–10k) is hurting more than grails above ฿50k. One ฿500k sale doesn't mean the market is healthy.
- OP17: JP still unwinding (-31% from launch, no floor yet). EN already reset (-47%) and has flattened.
- Thailand, Pokémon rotation and "redistribution into strong hands" are all plausible — and all unmeasured.
- Three things I'm watching: does JP find a floor, does EN stay disconnected from JP, does the middle market recover before the grails.
- Full transparency: I've been buying locally. Section 10 explains how to read your own listings against this.
The local Thai market has felt very, very slow lately.
And yet individual cards keep changing hands at prices that look completely unbelievable.
Both can't be the whole story. So which one is true?
Is the market slowing down, or is this a Thai-only feeling? Is OP17 hype fading? Is money rotating into Pokémon? Or are we in a redistribution phase where everyone is waiting for the next price level?
I wanted to stop arguing from individual transactions and look at the market as a whole — price action, breadth, liquidity, languages, sets, characters and marketplaces.
Here is what the latest OP-Atlas data says.
🌊 1. Yes, the market is slowing down
Atlas Est., like-for-like:
- 7D: -2.26%
- 14D: -2.12%
- 30D: -3.49%
Over the last 7 days, 56.5% of priced prints moved down. Only 15.2% moved up.
That is the weakest breadth in the 13-week series we measured.
For context: the market climbed roughly 13% from late June into mid-August, then gave back around 5% from that peak. Early September briefly looked like a pause. The latest week did not — the decline accelerated again.
And this is not a handful of cards dragging the index down. For cards worth at least ฿500 at the start of the window, 69.4% were down over 30 days, with a median move of -5.78%.
That is broad weakness.
🇯🇵 2. The real story is Japan, not "One Piece"
Split the market by language and the picture changes completely.
Japanese prints
- 7D: -4.72%
- 30D: -4.99%
- 60D: -10.45%
English prints
- 7D: -0.81%
- 30D: -2.77%
- 60D: +6.71%
- 90D: +13.27%
This is not one uniform global move. JP is significantly weaker than EN.
And JP weakness is not limited to OP17. Manga, SP/gold, alt-art and other chase prints are under pressure across multiple sets, particularly in the ฿3,000–50,000 range. English manga and SP prints have held up considerably better.
Saying "One Piece is down" hides all of that.
🧊 3. The market is not frozen — it is repricing
There is a big difference between:
"Nobody wants to sell."
and
"Sellers are repricing because buyers are demanding lower prices."
The data points strongly to the second.
On SNKRDunk, active listings are up 8.6% since August 21 — and more in the value tiers that matter:
- ฿500–3k: +12.0%
- ฿3k–10k: +11.7%
- ฿10k–50k: +15.6%
- >฿50k: +13.4%
At the same time, asking prices are falling. In the ฿3k–10k and ฿10k–50k ranges, median lowest asks are down roughly 15% from the June reference.
And trades have not disappeared. SNKRDunk's observable September transaction activity remained substantial, and eBay sold frequency showed no clear decline.
So the structure looks like this:
More supply → lower asks → trades still happening → lower clearing prices.
That is a clearing market, not a frozen one.
💎 4. Why a single ฿500k sale tells you almost nothing
The easiest way to misread a collectibles market is to look at a few expensive transactions and extrapolate.
Because the high end is behaving differently from everything else.
30-day change by price tier:
- >฿50k: -2.5%
- ฿3k–10k: -8.8%
- ฿1k–3k: -7.4%
- ฿500–1k: -6.9%
The middle of the market is taking far more pressure than the top.
So yes — a Japanese grail can still sell for ฿400k, ฿500k or more. That is real. It proves that scarcity and collector conviction for specific cards remain strong.
It does not prove the broader market is healthy. Thousands of other prints are being repriced lower at the same time.
⚔️ 5. OP17 is the clearest case study
Japanese OP17 is in a major unwind.
Atlas Est. is down around 31% from the August launch period. Yuyu-tei is down roughly 40%. Some headline chase cards have effectively been cut in half from launch.
Supply is still growing: OP17 listings on SNKRDunk increased around 27.5% between August 27 and September 20.
We do not have clear evidence of a floor yet.
English OP17 tells a different story. Early EN prints took a very large reset — around -47% from presale levels by September 1 — and the market has been much flatter since.
So right now: JP is still unwinding. EN has already reset and is searching for equilibrium.
One piece of context worth remembering: sharp post-launch corrections are normal. Several major English sets have lost around 20–40% early in price discovery, and some eventually fell much further. OP17 coming down does not, by itself, mean the market is structurally broken.
What makes this cycle different is that OP17 normalization is happening at the same time as broad JP weakness across older sets. Multiple forces, one moment.
🧭 6. There is no "the market" — there are ecosystems
Concentration is extreme.
About 1% of all prints represent roughly 63% of total market value. Luffy alone is around 33%. The top five characters account for roughly 59%. Promotional, championship and limited prints represent around 39% of total value.
That means the headline index is heavily influenced by a small number of high-value ecosystems — and those ecosystems are not moving together.
90-day change by character:
- Shanks: +26.6%
- Sanji: +19.6%
- Zoro: +16.7%
- Ace: +13.5%
- Luffy: +10.3%
- Kuzan: -42.8%
- Sakazuki: -43.8%
- Borsalino: -27.8%
Same game. Completely different market cycles running at the same time.
🇹🇭 7. What Atlas honestly cannot tell you
Three popular explanations are floating around locally. I want to be precise about what the data can and cannot support.
Thailand
OP-Atlas has no Thai marketplace price feed. We have no reliable transaction history from Facebook groups, LINE, local shops, private trades, cash deals, events or conventions. Our Facebook auction ingest captured 445 raw auction posts in May and extracted zero usable sales records.
So Atlas cannot say "Thailand is down X%," and it cannot say whether Thailand is slower than Japan.
What it can say: the slow feeling is not unique to Thailand. Japan is independently showing a significant slowdown, so the local mood is directionally consistent with something happening internationally. The size of any Thai-specific effect is unknown.
Redistribution
"Cards are leaving weak hands, entering strong collections, and prices will recover" is a tempting narrative. But Atlas has no ownership data. We cannot see who bought a card, whether it moved from a flipper to a long-term collector, or whether the buyer plans to hold for five years or sell next week.
Possible. Not measured.
Pokémon
Attention rotation is plausible — the anniversary is the most obvious local explanation. But Atlas measures One Piece, not collector wallet allocation across TCGs and hobbies. "Plausible" and "caused" are different words, and we are not entitled to the second one.
Fading hype
This one has more support. OP16 and OP17 are clearly in post-release normalization. But older Japanese chase cards are being repriced too, so "OP17 hype faded" cannot explain the whole picture. Something broader is happening in JP — and the fact that EN is behaving differently makes that more interesting, not less.
🌊 8. The most defensible read right now
The slowdown is real, but it is not uniform.
Japan is correcting much harder than English.
English is softer short term, but still substantially above June levels over 60–90 days.
The middle of the market is under more pressure than the high end.
OP17 is still unwinding in Japan and has already reset in English.
Supply is rising, asks are falling, transactions continue. The market is clearing — just at lower prices.
That is seller-led repricing, not a market where nobody will trade.
🔬 9. The three things I am watching
- Does JP find a floor? If Japanese chase cards keep making lower lows, the correction is not finished. If they stabilize while transaction activity stays healthy, we may be entering a new equilibrium.
- Does EN stay disconnected from JP? If English keeps holding while Japan reprices, this is no longer one global One Piece market. It is regional markets with their own supply and demand.
- Does the middle market recover before the grails? Real improvement would show up across the ฿500–10k range, not just in a few trophy cards. Breadth will tell us more than headlines.
🧾 10. How to read your own listings against this data
First, for transparency: I have been buying locally over the past weeks. These are the most affordable prices I've seen in the Thai market in about six months, and I'm acting on that. I say this so you can weigh everything above knowing where the Admin stands — and so you can hold me to it.
That said, none of this tells you what to do. It tells you what the numbers you see every day actually mean right now.
If you're selling
Your competition just grew. Listings in the ฿500–50k tiers are up 12–16% since late August, and median asks in the ฿3k–50k range are already ~15% below June. A listing priced at June levels is not "waiting for the right buyer" — it is above where the market is currently clearing. The question to ask is not "what did this sell for in August?" but "what is the lowest ask on this print today, and how many are listed beside it?"
If you're buying
Lower asks are real, but "cheaper than last month" and "cheap" are different things. JP has not shown a floor. The middle market is falling faster than the top. That means the segment with the biggest discounts is also the one with the least evidence of stabilizing. EN is the opposite case: it took its reset (-47% on early OP17) and has flattened, which is what a market searching for equilibrium looks like. Where you buy in the market matters more than when.
If you're holding
The 90-day character numbers are the reminder that "One Piece is down" says nothing about your specific cards. Shanks, Sanji, Zoro, Ace and Luffy are all up over 90 days. Kuzan, Sakazuki and Borsalino are down 28–44%. Check your collection against its own ecosystem, not against the headline index.
For everyone
Three signals would change this picture: JP chase cards stop making lower lows, EN keeps holding while JP reprices, and breadth improves in the ฿500–10k range before the grails. None of those has fired yet. Until they do, the data describes a market still repricing — and yes, that applies to my own buying too.
🧭 Final thought from the OP-Atlas Admin
One Piece TCG does not have one market.
It has Japanese cards and English cards. Grails and middle-market cards. Raw and graded. New releases and older chase prints. Promos. Local markets and international markets.
All of them can move differently at the same time.
A card selling for an unbelievable price in Thailand can be real. Thousands of cards drifting lower internationally can also be real. Those are not contradictions.
So the interesting question is not "are One Piece cards going up or down?"
It is: where is price discovery actually happening, where is liquidity changing, and which parts of the market are — or are not — willing to pay what sellers are asking?
Right now the data says: the market is repricing, Japan is leading the decline, English is softer but structurally stronger, the high end is holding better than the middle, and OP17 is still finding its level.
Whether this is a temporary redistribution, an attention rotation, or the start of something larger — we do not have enough evidence to say yet.
So I'm watching the data. Not the anecdotes. Not the hype. Not the panic.
The market. 🌊
Data snapshot: 20 September 2026 · Atlas Est. v6.4 · 12,281 tracked prints · 11,518 priced prints. The 21 September refresh was still running at the time of research and is not included. Atlas historical returns are calculated on like-for-like baskets; total market-cap levels are not themselves market returns.
📊 Full research data
The raw evidence behind this article — every number above comes from here: 14 sections and 45 tables, as of the 20 September 2026 data.
Open the full research data
As of: the 20 Sep 2026 bake (index generated 19:08 ICT, Atlas Est v6.4). The 21 Sep refresh was still running during this research and is not included. FX: ฿33.29 and ¥156.87 per US$ (Atlas FX, 21 Sep). Scope: 12,281 tracked prints, 11,518 priced.
The answer in brief
- The slowdown is real, and it is led by Japan. Atlas Est, value-weighted like-for-like: −2.3% over 7D, −3.5% over 30D. The market peaked in the week to 16 Aug and is ~5% below that peak. In the last 7 days 56.5% of priced prints fell and 15.2% rose, the weakest breadth of the 13 weeks measured.
- JP and EN are diverging. JP prints: −4.7% (7D), −5.0% (30D), −10.5% (60D) in USD. In yen the 30D and 60D JP declines are about 2–3.5 points deeper. EN prints: −0.8% (7D), −2.8% (30D), +6.7% (60D), +13.3% (90D).
- The Japanese marketplaces confirm it independently. yuyu-tei cut its sell prices on JP prints worth ≥฿3k by a median −22% in 30D, with none raised. SNKRDunk's JP sale index is −25% (raw) and −27% (PSA 10) from its June 2026 peak (monthly, through August). Share of established JP cards trading weekly: ~40% in June → ~21% in late August.
- US and EU sold prices are roughly flat over 30D. TCGplayer −0.4%, Cardmarket −0.3%. Softness sits in the EN middle tier (฿500–10k: −7% to −9%). EN's 12-month rally paused: TCGplayer EN index +119% over 52 weeks, −2.4% since its 9 Aug peak.
- This is not "nobody is selling". It looks like a seller-led repricing:
- SNKRDunk active listings +8.6% since 21 Aug; median lowest ask −15% in the ฿3k–50k tiers.
- TCGplayer and Cardmarket asks have slid below recent sale prices since June.
- Transactions continue: SNKRDunk panel sales were higher in September than August; eBay sold comps are steady.
- High-end prints held better than the middle. Prints over ฿50k: −2.5% (30D). Prints ฿500–10k: −7% to −9%. Individual JP grail slabs still trade at ฿340k–605k.
- OP17 is still unwinding in JP and has flattened in EN. JP: −31% Atlas Est and −40% yuyu-tei since 22 Aug, with no floor yet. EN: TCGplayer −47% from presale by 1 Sep (early-listed prints), then flat.
- Atlas cannot see Thailand. No Thai marketplace feed exists. The Facebook-auction pipeline captured 445 posts in May and extracted 0 sales, and there is no THB price history. Atlas cannot say whether Thailand is slower than Japan, or whether Pokémon is pulling spend away.
Best-supported reading of the A–F hypotheses:
- A (broad international weakness): yes for JP, only mild for EN.
- B (Thai/local only): untestable. Nothing suggests it is Thai-only, because the JP market shows the same slowdown.
- C (liquidity/redistribution): the mechanics are sellers adding supply at lower asks. "Stronger hands" can't be observed.
- D (post-release normalization): yes for OP16/OP17, but older JP chase prints are being repriced too.
- E (attention rotation): not measurable.
- F (a combination): yes. A JP-led correction after the May–June 2026 peak, overlapping launch normalization and an EN consolidation.
Scope and data limits
6M / 12M windows. Atlas Est history starts 9 May 2026 and is clean only from 18–20 Jun. Longer context comes from single-source archives: TCGplayer EN weekly since Feb 2024 and SNKRDunk JP weekly since 2022. These are labelled as single-source.
Thailand. Atlas has no Thai price or volume data, so no Thai-vs-international numbers are invented. Section 4 states exactly what Atlas measures, and what the international JP/EN data implies.
"Active listings". Only SNKRDunk exposes listing counts. For the US and EU, lowest-ask vs sold-price spreads (TCGplayer, Cardmarket) are used instead.
"Transactions". Three sources are used:
- SNKRDunk per-sale lists (last ~6 weeks, coverage-controlled panel).
- SNKRDunk weekly sale series (2022→).
- eBay sold comps (Jul→Sep).
Atlas's price-history row counts are not liquidity (they measure refresh cadence) and are shown only with that caveat.
Returns.
- Like-for-like baskets, chain-linked across estimate-version days (the site's own method), reported value-weighted, median, and breadth. Never the raw market cap.
- A robustness split by marketplace confirmation was added.
FX. JP estimates are stored in USD, so the yen move is separated out. The THB leg can't be (no THB history in Atlas).
Movers are evidence-gated.
- At least one marketplace confirms the direction, none opposes, and the raw price moves the same way.
- The move is within 2.5× the strongest marketplace move.
- At least 2 estimate sources, and at least $20 at both ends.
Also included: ask-vs-sold spreads, launch curves for past sets, concentration by character, and the robustness split.
Method and definitions
- Atlas Est return (VW). Value-weighted like-for-like move: Σ start value × (1 + card move) ÷ Σ start value − 1. Card moves are chain-linked across Atlas Est version days and revision bumps, so recalculations count as zero. This is the same calculation the site uses: the 7/14/30D per-card moves here reproduce the site's published moves exactly (0 mismatches across 10,080–11,536 prints).
- Windows and lookbacks. Windows end 20 Sep; start = 20 Sep minus N days. Lookbacks are 17/21/40 days (as on the site), and 70/100 days for 60D/90D.
- Breadth. Share of measured prints with a move above +1% (up), below −1% (down), or within ±1% (flat). This is the threshold the site's breadth figures use.
- Tiers. Start-of-window Atlas Est value converted to THB at ฿33.29/US$.
- Per-marketplace returns. Native currency (FX-free), same like-for-like method. Rows are written on change, so values carry forward for up to 45 days.
- Clipping. Weekly paths and per-marketplace VW clip each card's ratio to [⅓, 3].
1. Executive data snapshot
1.1 Like-for-like price movement (Atlas Est, all priced prints)
| Window | Prints measured | VW return | Median | Up | Down | Flat | Basket $ change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D (13→20 Sep) | 11,536 | −2.26% | −1.27% | 15.2% | 56.5% | 28.3% | −$21.5k (−฿0.72M) |
| 14D (6→20 Sep) | 10,970 | −2.12% | −0.43% | 22.7% | 45.3% | 32.0% | −$19.2k (−฿0.64M) |
| 30D (21 Aug→) | 10,080 | −3.49% | 0.00% | 32.9% | 44.0% | 23.1% | −$27.0k (−฿0.90M) |
| 60D (22 Jul→) | 9,955 | +0.69% | +2.26% | 52.8% | 34.9% | 12.3% | +$5.0k (+฿0.17M) |
| 90D (22 Jun→) | 9,466 | +7.50% | +2.75% | 55.6% | 34.6% | 9.8% | +$45.8k (+฿1.53M) |
| 6M / 12M | — | not in Atlas Est | — | — | — | — | see §13 |
The median print is worth $0.78 (฿26). All-print breadth is therefore dominated by bulk cards. The meaningful-value cohort, prints worth ≥฿500 at the start of the window, carries 98% of basket value:
| Window | Prints ≥฿500 | VW return | Median | Mean | Up | Down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | 1,916 | −2.29% | −1.66% | −3.18% | 12.1% | 60.3% |
| 14D | 1,819 | −2.14% | −1.68% | −4.45% | 17.6% | 60.9% |
| 30D | 1,558 | −3.55% | −5.78% | −6.64% | 21.9% | 69.4% |
| 60D | 1,488 | +0.56% | −3.92% | −1.59% | 36.5% | 55.8% |
| 90D | 1,352 | +7.48% | −0.05% | +6.28% | 48.2% | 45.7% |
1.2 Levels at each anchor date
| Date | Tracked prints | Priced prints | Atlas market cap | In THB | Median print | Mean print |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | 12,281 | 11,518 | $924.8k | ฿30.79M | $0.78 | $80.4 |
| 13 Sep | 12,282 | 11,515 | $946.0k | ฿31.49M | $0.78 | $81.7 |
| 6 Sep | 12,300 | 11,494 | $967.4k | ฿32.20M | $0.75 | $83.8 |
| 20–21 Aug | 12,124 | 11,002 | $851.6k | ฿28.35M | $0.69 | $75.8 |
| 21–22 Jul | 11,661 | 10,884 | $806.2k | ฿26.84M | $0.68 | $77.6 |
| 22 Jun | 11,571 | 10,741 | $733.2k | ฿24.41M | $0.60 | $74.5 |
- Market cap is Atlas's own deduplicated total. Tracked-print counts come from the index history; median and mean from Atlas's price history.
- The level peaked at $979.8k (฿32.6M) on 10 Sep.
- Levels are not returns. The total includes new prints (OP17 added ~330 prints from late August) and the version recalculations on 6/7/11 Sep. Those recalcs moved the cap −0.72%, −2.28% and −0.86% on their days.
1.3 Confidence and marketplace coverage (current estimates)
| Date | High conf. (≥0.85) | Medium | Low | 3+ sources | 2 | 1 | Sold-backed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | 4.7% | 62.0% | 33.4% | 65.9% | 14.8% | 19.3% | 63.7% |
| 13 Sep | 4.7% | 62.0% | 33.3% | 66.2% | 14.8% | 19.0% | 63.7% |
| 21 Aug | 5.5% | 64.7% | 29.8% | 61.6% | 21.4% | 17.0% | 62.5% |
| 22 Jul | 5.0% | 65.4% | 29.6% | 62.5% | 20.3% | 17.2% | 62.9% |
| 22 Jun | 4.3% | 66.6% | 29.1% | 58.6% | 22.9% | 18.5% | n/a (flag added July) |
Marketplace inputs kept inside current estimates (20 Sep vs 22 Jul):
| Marketplace | 20 Sep | 22 Jul |
|---|---|---|
| Cardmarket | 6,038 | 5,965 |
| PriceCharting | 4,910 | 4,478 |
| CardTrader | 4,650 | 5,053 |
| TCGplayer | 4,241 | 4,158 |
| yuyu-tei | 3,843 | 3,440 |
| SNKRDunk | 1,427 | 540 |
| eBay | 138 | 1,709 |
eBay's role in estimates shrank because attribution rules tightened on 11–13 Sep, not because of the market (see §12).
2. Market-wide trend
2.1 Weekly path (Atlas Est, VW clipped, chain-linked)
| Week to | Prints | Market VW | Median | Up | Down | JP VW | EN VW | Cumulative since 21 Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jun | 10,568 | +3.01% | 0% | 20.1% | 24.4% | +7.33% | +0.70% | +3.0% |
| 5 Jul | 10,553 | +1.15% | 0% | 30.6% | 21.9% | −5.21% | +4.61% | +4.2% |
| 12 Jul | 10,657 | +2.84% | 0% | 22.3% | 27.2% | +3.61% | +2.49% | +7.2% |
| 19 Jul | 10,468 | 0.00% | 0% | 17.6% | 21.9% | −0.33% | +0.15% | +7.1% |
| 26 Jul | 10,869 | +1.61% | 0% | 18.0% | 22.2% | +0.32% | +2.29% | +8.9% |
| 2 Aug | 10,866 | −0.78% | +1.80% | 55.0% | 23.5% | −2.46% | 0.00% | +8.0% |
| 9 Aug | 10,919 | +2.15% | 0% | 20.6% | 22.5% | −0.07% | +3.24% | +10.3% |
| 16 Aug | 10,896 | +2.55% | 0% | 26.2% | 38.5% | +3.18% | +2.25% | +13.2% (peak) |
| 23 Aug | 10,800 | −1.22% | 0% | 29.4% | 22.6% | −4.51% | +0.39% | +11.8% |
| 30 Aug | 11,290 | −1.50% | 0% | 15.7% | 31.1% | −4.44% | 0.00% | +10.1% |
| 6 Sep | 11,148 | −0.32% | 0% | 42.2% | 22.8% | +1.92% | −1.42% | +9.7% |
| 13 Sep | 11,236 | +0.14% | 0% | 34.9% | 25.2% | +0.10% | +0.15% | +9.9% |
| 20 Sep | 11,536 | −2.26% | −1.27% | 15.2% | 56.5% | −4.72% | −0.81% | +7.4% |
- Accelerating, stabilizing or reversing? The market rose ~13% from late June to mid-August, then fell about 5% (13.2% → 7.4% cumulative). Weakness paused in early September (−0.3%, +0.1%) and re-accelerated in the latest week: −2.3%, with 56.5% of prints down, the broadest decline in the series. There is no sign of stabilization yet.
- Caveats:
- 20 Sep brought a manual refresh of yuyu-tei, CardTrader and Cardmarket. Weekly-cadence sources land their moves in steps, so part of the latest week is catch-up of repricing that happened over several days.
- About 2 points of the latest week's JP drop is the yen (153.6 → 156.9 per US$).
- Cumulative JP is −6.0% since 21 Jun; EN is +14.8%.
2.2 Robustness: is the move confirmed by marketplaces?
Each Atlas move is split by whether stable marketplaces moved the same way (≥3%) in the same window. Stable marketplaces: TCGplayer, Cardmarket, PriceCharting, yuyu-tei, SNKRDunk, eBay; CardTrader excluded.
| Window | All prints VW | Only small (<3%) + confirmed | EN all / confirmed | JP all / confirmed | Confirmed movers up / down |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | −2.26% | −1.97% | −0.81% / −0.70% | −4.72% / −4.23% | 801 / 1,934 |
| 14D | −2.12% | −2.21% | −0.61% / −1.30% | −5.01% / −3.98% | 856 / 1,706 |
| 30D | −3.49% | −2.78% | −2.77% / −2.01% | −4.99% / −5.01% | 1,188 / 1,594 |
The direction survives removing every unconfirmed, contested or contradicted estimate move. The 7D figure is carried by marketplace-confirmed declines, which outnumber confirmed rises 2.4:1.
2.3 How concentrated is the move?
| Window | Net $ | Gross $ down | Top 10 losers' share of gross down | Top 50 | Top 100 | Net excl. 10 biggest losers | Net excl. 10 biggest losers and gainers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | −$21.5k | −$29.4k | 28.7% | 59.4% | 71.6% | −$13.1k | −$18.8k |
| 14D | −$19.2k | −$31.3k | 25.8% | 55.8% | 67.6% | −$11.1k | −$18.4k |
| 30D | −$27.0k | −$54.0k | 29.7% | 61.3% | 72.3% | −$11.0k | −$27.3k |
The big swings roughly cancel each other out: removing the 10 largest $ moves on both sides leaves the 30D net unchanged. The decline is not a few-card artifact, although a few cards set the size of any single week.
2.4 Market concentration (value)
| Date | Top 10 prints | Top 50 | Top 100 | Top 1% of prints | Prints >฿50k | Luffy share | Promos/champ/limited share | JP share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | 18.8% | 44.3% | 59.4% | 62.6% | 132 | 33.2% | 39.0% | 36.0% |
| 13 Sep | 18.1% | 43.4% | 58.7% | 62.4% | 140 | 32.9% | 38.5% | 37.2% |
| 20–21 Aug | 18.5% | 43.0% | 58.5% | 61.2% | 129 | 32.7% | 40.6% | 32.1% |
| 21–22 Jul | 20.0% | 45.6% | 60.7% | 63.3% | 127 | 31.0% | 41.0% | 36.2% |
| 22 Jun | 19.2% | 44.4% | 59.9% | 62.4% | 124 | 30.7% | 40.1% | 39.2% |
- About 1% of prints (~116) hold ~63% of all value, a structure that has been stable since June.
- Luffy's share keeps rising: 30.7% → 33.2%.
- Top five characters: 58.6% of value (57.9% on 22 Jun).
- Promo/championship/limited prints are ~39% of value on their own.
3. Breadth and liquidity
3.1 Movement bands
All priced prints:
| Band | 7D | 14D | 30D |
|---|---|---|---|
| > +25% | 319 | 546 | 1,175 |
| +10 to +25% | 533 | 841 | 954 |
| +5 to +10% | 440 | 520 | 567 |
| +1 to +5% | 458 | 578 | 620 |
| flat (±1%) | 3,270 | 3,512 | 2,332 |
| −1 to −5% | 4,021 | 2,160 | 1,278 |
| −5 to −10% | 1,184 | 944 | 776 |
| −10 to −25% | 1,033 | 1,374 | 1,559 |
| < −25% | 278 | 495 | 819 |
| Prints | 11,536 | 10,970 | 10,080 |
| Median / mean | −1.27% / −0.92% | −0.43% / −0.07% | 0.00% / +3.16% |
Prints worth ≥฿500 at window start:
| Band | 7D | 14D | 30D |
|---|---|---|---|
| > +25% | 13 | 29 | 62 |
| +10 to +25% | 36 | 60 | 97 |
| +5 to +10% | 56 | 77 | 74 |
| +1 to +5% | 126 | 154 | 107 |
| flat (±1%) | 530 | 395 | 136 |
| −1 to −5% | 712 | 467 | 273 |
| −5 to −10% | 212 | 252 | 207 |
| −10 to −25% | 176 | 281 | 404 |
| < −25% | 55 | 104 | 198 |
| Prints | 1,916 | 1,819 | 1,558 |
| Median / mean | −1.66% / −3.18% | −1.68% / −4.45% | −5.78% / −6.64% |
- Weakness is broad and shallow over a week, deeper over a month.
- Over 7D the single biggest band for meaningful cards is −1 to −5% (712 of 1,916).
- Over 30D it is −10 to −25% (404 of 1,558): 69% of meaningful prints are down and only 22% up.
- The all-print 30D mean (+3.2%) is bulk noise; its median is exactly 0.
3.2 Japan: SNKRDunk trading, inventory and asks
Trading breadth. Share of a fixed panel of 1,516 established JP card×grade series (first sale before 1 Jun 2025) that traded at least once a week. Source: SNKRDunk weekly sale series, complete through the week starting 30 Aug.
| Period (4-week avg) | All | Raw A | PSA 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2024 | 10.7–11.5% | 7.4–7.9% | 17.9–18.5% |
| Jun–Aug 2025 | 7.8–8.5% | 2.1–3.2% | 16.7–19.0% |
| Jan 2026 | 22.9% | 15.9% | 36.3% |
| May 2026 | 35.2% | 27.1% | 52.4% |
| early Jun 2026 | 40.1% | 33.7% | 56.0% |
| late Jul 2026 | 21.9% | 11.7% | 39.7% |
| late Aug 2026 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 40.5% |
- Single weeks, all grades: 7 Jun 49.6% → 12 Jul 25.8% → 16 Aug 17.9% → 23 Aug 22.4% → 30 Aug 20.6%.
- JP trading breadth has roughly halved since the June peak, but is still about twice the 2024–25 baseline.
Transactions. Individual SNKRDunk sales on a fixed panel of 1,778 card×grade lists fully observable since 9 Aug:
| Week starting | Sales | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug | 376 | ฿7.5M |
| 16 Aug | 360 | ฿7.6M |
| 23 Aug | 483 | ฿13.7M |
| 30 Aug | 440 | ฿5.9M |
| 6 Sep | 751 | ฿12.4M |
| 13 Sep | 543 | ฿9.8M |
The panel excludes the hottest cards: 333 of the 2,111 lists refreshed on 20 Sep can't be observed back to 9 Aug, because SNKRDunk shows 10 sales per grade per fetch. Observable transaction counts did not fall in September.
Inventory. Active used listings on a fixed panel of 6,542 SNKRDunk items:
| Tier | 25 Jun | 21 Aug | 13 Sep | 20 Sep | Since 21 Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 20,333 | 20,703 | 21,490 | 22,482 | +8.6% |
| <฿500 | 6,741 | 6,596 | 6,639 | 6,667 | +1.1% |
| ฿500–3k | 7,377 | 7,409 | 7,790 | 8,295 | +12.0% |
| ฿3k–10k | 1,880 | 2,070 | 2,136 | 2,313 | +11.7% |
| ฿10k–50k | 1,019 | 1,166 | 1,264 | 1,348 | +15.6% |
| >฿50k | 158 | 179 | 203 | 203 | +13.4% |
The share of items with zero listings is stable at ~69%. OP17 items: 714 → 910 listings (+27.5%, 27 Aug → 20 Sep, 273 items).
Lowest asks (same panel, median ratio to each item's own 25 Jun ask):
| Tier | 21 Aug | 20 Sep | Change | Value-weighted change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ฿3k–10k | 1.00 | 0.854 | −15% | −18% |
| ฿10k–50k | 0.972 | 0.821 | −15% | −16% |
The typical cheaper item's lowest ask is unchanged (median ratio 1.00).
3.3 US / global: eBay sold comps
eBay sold comps per 100 tracked cards per week, from the 16–17 Sep harvest of 2,938 cards. Counts are raw plus graded, with the card number required in the title.
| Week starting | 12 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 23 Aug | 30 Aug | 6 Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 9 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| EN cards | 9 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| JP cards | 10 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 18 | 12 | 14 |
| Cards ≥฿50k (97) | 13 | 11 | 33 | 30 | 21 | 18 | 27 | 29 | 24 |
- No decline in eBay transaction frequency through 12 Sep.
- Caveats:
- The first harvested week (5 Jul) is excluded as an edge artifact.
- Counts can include sibling prints sharing a card number.
- eBay is harvested on demand, not daily.
3.4 US / EU: where asks sit versus recent sales
The ratio is the cheapest listing ÷ the sales-based price. Cards grouped by that price.
TCGplayer, lowest listing ÷ market price, cards ≥฿10k:
| Date | Median ratio | Share with ask >1.1× sold | Share with ask <0.9× sold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May | 1.234 | 61% | 17% |
| 24 Jun | 1.202 | 60% | 15% |
| 12 Jul | 1.149 | 55% | 15% |
| 6 Aug | 1.094 | 48% | 17% |
| 22 Aug | 1.060 | 46% | 25% |
| 29 Aug | 1.000 | 38% | 29% |
| 20 Sep | 0.993 | 34% | 31% |
TCGplayer, cards ฿3k–10k (median ratio): 1.040 (31 May) → 1.001 (12 Jul) → 0.950 (6 Aug) → 0.935 (20 Sep). Share of cards with ask <0.9× sold rose from 20% to 41%.
Cardmarket, low ÷ trend, cards ≥฿10k:
| Date | Median ratio | Share with ask <0.9× trend |
|---|---|---|
| 29 May | 0.969 | 41% |
| 27 Jun | 1.008 | 39% |
| 6 Aug | 0.955 | 45% |
| 23 Aug | 0.912 | 49% |
| 8 Sep | 0.886 | 51% |
| 20 Sep | 0.859 | 56% |
Cardmarket, cards ฿3k–10k (median ratio): 0.892 (29 May) → 0.789 (20 Sep).
In June, US high-end asks sat ~20% above recent sales. Now the cheapest ask sits at or below them, in both the US and the EU.
3.5 "Nobody wants the cards" vs "not enough liquidity"
| Test | What we'd expect if… | What Atlas shows |
|---|---|---|
| Listings | …holders refuse to sell: listings fall | SNKRDunk listings up 8.6% since 21 Aug; +12–16% in ฿500–50k tiers |
| Asks | …holders refuse to sell: asks rise | Asks down: SNKRDunk median −15% (฿3k–50k); TCGplayer and Cardmarket asks slid below sales; yuyu-tei −22% median (≥฿3k) |
| Transactions | …liquidity freeze: sales dry up | SNKRDunk panel sales Sep ≥ Aug; eBay comps steady |
| Clearing price | …buyers stepping back: sales below prior levels | Raw sales since 7 Sep cleared at a median 0.91× Atlas Est (n=395) |
Supply is rising, asks are falling, and trades are still happening, but at lower prices. That is a seller-led repricing, strongest in Japan and in the middle tiers. It is not an illiquid standoff, and not a market where holders are withholding inventory. Whether cards are moving into "stronger hands" can't be observed: Atlas has no ownership data.
4. Thai vs international
4.1 What Atlas can measure, by geography
Native-currency like-for-like returns, value-weighted; breadth shown as up/down.
| Marketplace | Region | What Atlas records | Prints measured (7D) | 7D | 30D | 90D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCGplayer | US (EN) | sales-based market price + lowest listing, daily | 4,860 | −0.21% (21↑ 38↓) | −0.39% (34↑ 47↓) | +11.54% |
| Cardmarket | EU (EN + JP) | sales-based trend + lowest offer, weekly import | 8,448 | +0.12% (20↑ 32↓) | −0.32% (EN −0.93%, JP +1.89%) | +16.14% |
| CardTrader | EU / global | lowest ask (lowest-trust input) | 6,711 | −2.00% | −7.02% (EN −7.87%) | +1.63% |
| PriceCharting ungraded | US (eBay-derived) | aggregated sold price, EN + JP | 7,565 | −0.67% | −0.12% (EN −2.72%, JP +4.07%*) | +4.97% |
| PriceCharting PSA 10 | US | graded sold price | 2,941 | −0.69% | −3.78% (EN −3.61%, JP −4.11%) | +10.59% |
| eBay sold | global, US-centric | sold median per card at harvest | 2,584 | −0.63% | +1.63% (EN −3.77%, JP +11.06%**) | n/a (from 16 Jul) |
| yuyu-tei | Japan retail | shop sell price, twice weekly | 3,994 | −16.71% (0.5↑ 4↓) | −32.19% | −37.15% |
| SNKRDunk raw A | Japan marketplace | sale-based reading | 1,557 | −0.49% | JP −1.92% | JP +0.79% |
| SNKRDunk PSA 10 | Japan marketplace | sale-based reading | 1,329 | −1.73% (4.6↑ 21.4↓) | −5.55% (JP −4.71%) | +9.92% |
| Yahoo Auctions JP | Japan | stale since 24 Jul, not used | — | — | — | — |
| Thailand | — | no feed | — | — | — | — |
* The PriceCharting JP series sat unrefreshed from 26 Jul to 6 Sep; daily JP refresh started 11 Sep, so its 14–30D JP numbers are partly catch-up.
** The eBay JP 30D figure rests on 739 prints, 9 of them >฿50k (+25%), and is noisy.
yuyu-tei's value-weighted figures are carried by expensive prints. Among its ≥฿3k JP prints (n=108, 30D): median −22%, 80% down, none up. Its bulk (<฿500) barely moved (−6%, 95% unchanged).
SNKRDunk JP PSA 10, 30D by tier: ฿500–3k −24.0%, ฿3k–10k −13.4%, ฿10k–50k −16.8% (89% of those down), >฿50k +1.6%.
4.2 What exists on the Thai side, and why it can't answer the question
- Facebook-auction ingest (Thai group auctions): 445 raw posts captured in May 2026 (349 later archived); 0 extracted sales records.
- FX: Atlas stores JPY/USD implicitly (yen-priced rows), but no THB history (THB is fetched live: ฿33.29/US$ today). THB-denominated returns can't be separated from USD ones.
- JPY per US$: 161.3 (22 Jun) → 162.4 (21 Jul) → ~159.5 (20 Aug) → 156.3 (6 Sep) → 153.6 (13 Sep) → 156.9 (20 Sep).
4.3 Does the international market confirm what Thai collectors feel?
- For JP cards: yes. The Japanese marketplaces show a slowdown independently of Thailand:
- yuyu-tei has cut 80% of the ≥฿3k JP prints it lists over 30D and raised none.
- SNKRDunk's sale index is −25% to −27% from its June peak (through August).
- The share of JP cards trading weekly has halved since June.
- JP listings and discounts are growing.
- For EN cards: only mildly. US/EU sold prices are flat over 30D (TCGplayer −0.4%, Cardmarket −0.3%) and eBay trade frequency is steady. But asks are softening, and the EN ฿500–10k tier is −7% to −9%.
- What Atlas cannot say:
- whether Thailand is slower than Japan;
- what Thai prices or Thai volumes are doing;
- whether a Thai-specific factor (local liquidity, THB, events) adds to it.
If Thai prices for JP cards track Japanese marketplaces, the Thai "slow market" feeling is consistent with what Atlas sees in Japan. That condition is an assumption, not an Atlas measurement.
5. JP vs EN
5.1 Headline
Atlas Est, USD, like-for-like.
| Window | EN VW | EN median | EN up / down | EN prints | JP VW | JP median | JP up / down | JP prints | Yen vs US$ over window |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7D | −0.81% | −0.68% | 20.4% / 45.0% | 6,680 | −4.72% | −1.92% | 7.9% / 72.3% | 4,856 | −2.1% (JP in yen ≈ −2.6%) |
| 14D | −0.61% | −0.73% | 29.6% / 48.1% | 6,435 | −5.01% | −0.41% | 12.8% / 41.5% | 4,535 | ≈ flat |
| 30D | −2.77% | −1.10% | 38.9% / 50.5% | 5,971 | −4.99% | 0.00% | 24.2% / 34.5% | 4,109 | +1.7–2.0% (JP in yen ≈ −7%) |
| 60D | +6.71% | +3.06% | 52.2% / 40.1% | 5,843 | −10.45% | +1.79% | 53.7% / 27.6% | 4,112 | +3.5% (JP in yen ≈ −13.5%) |
| 90D | +13.27% | +5.92% | 55.5% / 37.8% | 5,647 | −4.98% | +2.00% | 55.8% / 29.9% | 3,819 | +2.7% (JP in yen ≈ −7.5%) |
- The yen adjustment is an upper bound: JP estimates also use EUR and USD inputs.
- Market value (20 Sep): JP $332.2k (฿11.06M, 4,839 prints); EN $592.7k (฿19.73M, 6,679 prints). On 22 Jun: JP $266.4k, EN $466.8k.
- Over 60–90D the JP median is positive while its value-weighted return is negative: JP bulk rose while JP chase fell.
5.2 Where the JP weakness sits
By print type (Atlas Est VW; share of prints down):
| Print type | JP 7D | EN 7D | JP 30D | EN 30D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manga | −9.8% (73% down) | +0.3% (33%) | −17.0% (83%) | +3.5% (43%) |
| SP / gold | −10.9% (76%) | −0.2% (52%) | −6.6% (67%) | −1.9% (65%) |
| Alt-art / parallel | −3.0% (75%) | −1.7% (46%) | −2.6% (41%) | −8.2% (60%) |
| Base print | −2.5% (71%) | −0.3% (42%) | +3.8% (29%) | −9.5% (44%) |
| Event / promo print | −0.7% (71%) | −1.2% (47%) | +0.7% (24%) | −2.4% (44%) |
By value tier (Atlas Est VW):
| Tier | JP 7D | EN 7D | JP 30D | EN 30D | JP 90D | EN 90D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <฿500 | −0.7% | −1.1% | +5.0% | −4.7% | +4.5% | +12.0% |
| ฿500–1k | −3.8% | −1.5% | −4.4% | −8.7% | +2.2% | +5.7% |
| ฿1k–3k | −3.7% | −2.7% | −7.9% | −7.2% | −1.8% | +6.2% |
| ฿3k–10k | −5.8% | −3.1% | −12.6% | −7.0% | −0.6% | +14.1% |
| ฿10k–50k | −8.7% | −1.5% | −11.3% | −1.6% | −1.3% | +14.9% |
| >฿50k | −3.8% | −0.2% | −2.6% | −2.5% | −7.6% (median −23.8%) | +12.9% |
By set, 30D JP vs EN (Atlas Est VW):
| Set | JP 30D | EN 30D |
|---|---|---|
| OP16 | −44.6% | −12.6% |
| EB02 | −28.1% | −0.2% |
| OP12 | −24.7% | −2.3% |
| OP07 | −21.1% | −2.2% |
| OP15 | −21.1% | −1.7% |
| OP09 | −19.6% | +2.2% |
| OP06 | −17.4% | −2.5% |
| OP13 | −10.5% | −2.6% |
Over 7D, JP down-breadth is 60–89% in every set worth ≥$5k.
JP is materially weaker than EN. The weakness sits in JP chase prints (manga, SP, alt-art leaders/SECs, ฿3k–50k) across nearly every set, not just the new ones. EN weakness is milder and sits in mid-value alt-arts and base prints. EN manga and SP prints are flat to up.
6. Sets
Atlas Est, all languages. Value on 20 Sep; returns value-weighted; "down" is the share of prints down.
| Set | Value | Prints (7D) | 7D VW | 7D median | 7D down | 30D VW | 30D median | 30D down | 90D VW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Promos / championship / limited | $360.6k | 1,183 | −1.6% | −1.6% | 57% | −3.4% | −1.2% | 52% | +6.5% |
| OP13 | $68.3k | 461 | −4.3% | −1.7% | 62% | −5.2% | 0.0% | 42% | +18.7% |
| OP17 | $63.4k | 331 | −4.2% | −3.0% | 73% | — | — | — | — |
| EB02 | $47.4k | 214 | −3.9% | −1.1% | 51% | −6.9% | −1.0% | 50% | +32.2% |
| OP05 | $39.0k | 390 | +1.8% | −1.1% | 52% | +22.9%* | −0.8% | 49% | −4.5% |
| OP11 | $36.1k | 451 | −4.4% | −1.2% | 57% | −0.2% | 0.0% | 35% | +35.7% |
| OP09 | $33.3k | 460 | −2.6% | −1.2% | 56% | −5.3% | 0.0% | 43% | +6.5% |
| PRB01 | $32.5k | 568 | −0.2% | −1.8% | 59% | −0.2% | 0.0% | 43% | −3.2% |
| Starter decks (ST) | $32.1k | 1,364 | −2.3% | −1.4% | 57% | −3.9% | 0.0% | 43% | +2.0% |
| OP01 | $30.2k | 350 | −0.2% | −1.3% | 58% | −1.4% | −0.1% | 47% | +7.2% |
| OP07 | $21.1k | 435 | −1.7% | −1.2% | 56% | −3.9% | 0.0% | 39% | +4.1% |
| OP14 | $20.5k | 236 | −2.4% | −1.6% | 73% | −10.6% | 0.0% | 41% | −6.5% |
| OP06 | $16.6k | 422 | −1.9% | −1.2% | 56% | −4.7% | 0.0% | 44% | +15.7% |
| EB03 | $11.6k | 182 | −3.0% | −1.5% | 62% | −7.5% | −1.0% | 51% | +24.6% |
| OP12 | $10.7k | 439 | −7.9% | −1.3% | 58% | −10.8% | 0.0% | 39% | +3.8% |
| OP02 | $10.5k | 448 | −1.8% | −1.1% | 53% | −2.5% | −0.9% | 49% | +0.5% |
| PRB02 | $10.0k | 618 | −3.9% | −1.9% | 55% | −1.9% | 0.0% | 35% | +29.2% |
| OP16 | $9.3k | 310 | −10.3% | −1.9% | 61% | −32.1% | 0.0% | 46% | −46.9% |
| EB01 | $7.9k | 163 | −3.7% | −1.4% | 58% | +6.3%* | −0.3% | 49% | −11.8% |
| OP03 | $7.3k | 444 | −1.4% | −1.1% | 55% | −2.5% | −0.6% | 48% | +8.5% |
| OP04 | $6.6k | 414 | −1.3% | −1.2% | 55% | −1.0% | 0.0% | 43% | +14.9% |
| OP14-EB04 | $6.3k | 198 | −2.2% | 0.0% | 36% | +0.1% | 0.0% | 46% | +15.7% |
| OP15 | $5.6k | 206 | −2.4% | −1.5% | 67% | −10.3% | 0.0% | 44% | −35.7% |
| OP15-EB04 | $5.4k | 196 | −2.3% | 0.0% | 39% | −5.7% | −4.9% | 55% | +11.5% |
| OP10 | $3.7k | 421 | −0.9% | −1.0% | 50% | −4.2% | 0.0% | 41% | +8.8% |
| OP08 | $3.5k | 438 | −2.4% | −1.0% | 49% | −6.7% | 0.0% | 41% | −1.1% |
| EB04 | $2.2k | 112 | −7.1% | −1.3% | 58% | −10.1% | 0.0% | 37% | −3.3% |
* The OP05 and EB01 30D gains are driven by a few estimate jumps that marketplaces don't confirm (see §12). Their medians are ≤0.
A set here is Atlas's set id, which is the product a print shipped in. For example, OP17 includes the SP and super-parallel reprints of older numbers found in OP17 boxes.
Patterns:
- Broad weakness: every set's median print fell or was flat over 7D, and in most sets 50–73% of prints fell. Only OP05's value-weighted figure rose, on estimate jumps. The deepest 30D declines are the three newest main sets: OP16 (−32%), OP14 (−11%), OP15 (−10%). OP12 (−11%) and EB04 (−10%) are close behind.
- Relatively stable: PRB01 (−0.2% 7D and 30D), OP01, OP04, OP14-EB04, OP11 (30D).
- Strength despite the market: none confirmed. OP05 and EB01 look positive over 30D only because of a handful of unconfirmed estimate jumps.
- Few cards moving, most flat or down: OP13, EB02 and OP09 lose value through a few JP chase prints.
What drove each set's 30D value change (≥฿1k prints):
| Set | Biggest $ declines | Biggest $ gains |
|---|---|---|
| OP13 | OP13-118_p3 Luffy EN −7.9% (−$1,659); jp-OP13-118_p2 −35.6%; jp-OP13-120_p3 Sabo −17.5% | OP13-120_p3 EN +11.6% (contradicted by marketplaces) |
| EB02 | jp-OP05-060_p4 Luffy −33%; jp-EB02-061_p2 −25%; jp-OP08-001_p2 Chopper −62.5% | OP08-001_p2 (SPR) EN +13.4%; OP07-079_p2 Rob Lucci (SPR) EN +50.9% |
| OP09 | jp-OP09-118_p2 Roger −30.2% (−$1,420); jp-OP09-119_p2 Luffy −21.8% | OP09-118_p2 EN +7.2% |
| OP16 | jp-OP16-065_p2 Sakazuki −54.3%; jp-OP16-073_p2 Borsalino −43.7%; jp-OP16-063_p2 Kuzan −44.7% | none |
| Promos | OP10-033_p2 Nami −60.8% (contested); OP07-109_p4 Luffy −46% (unconfirmed) | jp-OP01-120_p4 Shanks +81.8% (contradicted) |
OP17 has its own section (§10).
7. Characters
Atlas character indices (every print of a character, all languages). Value on 20 Sep; returns value-weighted; "down" is the share of prints down over 7D.
| Character | Value | Prints (7D) | 7D VW | 7D median | 7D down | 30D VW | 30D median | 90D VW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monkey D. Luffy | $307.8k | 457 | −1.8% | −2.1% | 63% | −2.5% | −3.9% | +10.3% |
| Portgas D. Ace | $55.5k | 150 | −2.3% | −1.9% | 63% | −0.5% | −3.9% | +13.5% |
| Roronoa Zoro | $49.1k | 188 | −2.9% | −2.1% | 66% | −4.2% | −2.2% | +16.7% |
| Shanks | $48.8k | 122 | −0.5% | −2.1% | 70% | +8.2% | −5.6% | +26.6% |
| Nami | $38.5k | 165 | −3.0% | −1.6% | 63% | −11.5% | −1.9% | −8.9% |
| Tony Tony Chopper | $27.8k | 137 | −2.5% | −1.2% | 56% | −0.8% | −1.7% | +5.9% |
| Boa Hancock | $27.0k | 106 | −1.6% | −2.1% | 68% | −9.1% | −2.2% | +7.3% |
| Sanji | $23.9k | 182 | −1.8% | −1.4% | 57% | −0.2% | −1.4% | +19.6% |
| Trafalgar Law | $23.9k | 182 | −1.0% | −1.1% | 52% | −2.6% | −0.1% | +5.0% |
| Sabo | $18.2k | 139 | −5.7% | −1.5% | 58% | −1.3% | −2.9% | +12.7% |
| Yamato | $12.9k | 91 | −1.4% | −1.4% | 55% | +0.5% | −1.1% | +18.6% |
| Gol D. Roger | $12.2k | 19 | −3.8% | −1.3% | 58% | −7.7% | −6.4% | +1.1% (median −16.7%) |
| Marshall D. Teach | $10.5k | 73 | −6.7% | −1.1% | 52% | −8.8% | −1.5% | −6.1% |
| Vinsmoke Reiju | $9.1k | 45 | −2.4% | −1.9% | 56% | −2.0% | +0.8% | −0.6% |
| Crocodile | $7.9k | 83 | −1.5% | −1.1% | 52% | −0.1% | −1.1% | +7.8% |
| Enel | $7.1k | 37 | −3.0% | −3.1% | 70% | −2.2% | −8.1% | −21.7% |
| Jewelry Bonney | $7.0k | 108 | −2.2% | −1.1% | 54% | −6.6% | −5.0% | +0.1% |
| Nico Robin | $6.6k | 131 | −3.4% | −1.3% | 56% | −9.3% | 0.0% | +12.5% |
Other characters behaving unusually:
| Character | Value | 7D VW | 30D VW | 90D VW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuzan | $3.3k | −6.4% | −27.7% | −42.8% |
| Sakazuki | $2.5k | −10.2% | −39.4% | −43.8% |
| Borsalino | $4.8k | −6.2% | −16.9% | −27.8% |
| Koby | $5.5k | −2.0% | −20.6% | +11.2% |
| Brook | $4.6k | −1.0% | −1.9% | +62.7% |
| Charlotte Linlin | $6.9k | −3.2% | −1.0% | +24.8% |
| Perona | $8.6k | −2.2% | +5.3% | +19.0% |
| Uta | $10.5k | +0.1% | −1.3% | +12.2% |
Patterns:
- Over 7D the weakness is character-wide. Every index in the main table fell (Uta, at +0.1%, is the lone flat one among the top 20), with 52–70% of each character's prints down. No character ecosystem is escaping the week.
- Over 30–90D it concentrates in two places:
- Characters whose value sits in the newest sets: the admirals Kuzan, Sakazuki and Borsalino (OP16-heavy), −28% to −44% over 90D.
- Characters carried by a few JP chase prints: Roger (90D median −16.7%), Enel, Teach, Nami.
- The iconic core held up best: Luffy, Ace, Zoro, Shanks and Sanji are +10% to +27% over 90D.
- Shanks' +8.2% 30D is a few prints, not the character: median −5.6%, 64% of prints down.
- Luffy alone is 33% of Atlas value, and his index (−2.5% 30D) sets the tone of the whole market figure.
8. High-end vs low-end
Atlas Est, value-weighted, tiers by start-of-window value.
| Tier | 7D | 14D | 30D | 60D | 90D | Prints (30D) | 30D up / down | Value at 30D start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <฿500 | −0.88% | −1.25% | +0.03% | +6.86% | +8.31% | 8,522 | 34.9% / 39.3% | $14.8k |
| ฿500–1k | −2.57% | −4.82% | −6.92% | −3.31% | +4.36% | 437 | 23.6% / 69.6% | $9.4k |
| ฿1k–3k | −3.16% | −4.95% | −7.41% | −2.03% | +3.51% | 458 | 23.4% / 70.5% | $23.3k |
| ฿3k–10k | −4.06% | −4.22% | −8.80% | −4.25% | +9.41% | 288 | 17.4% / 74.7% | $47.4k |
| ฿10k–50k | −3.67% | −3.18% | −4.29% | +4.55% | +10.75% | 259 | 21.2% / 64.1% | $188.3k |
| >฿50k | −1.62% | −1.41% | −2.52% | −0.39% | +6.06% | 116 | 22.4% / 63.8% | $491.7k |
Transaction activity by tier:
SNKRDunk share of established JP items trading weekly (4-week average, May–Jun 2026 → Aug 2026):
Tier May–Jun 2026 Aug 2026 <฿500 18–24% 8.5% ฿500–3k 52–59% 33% ฿3k–10k 57–59% 40% ≥฿10k 42–43% 27% eBay comps per 100 cards per week for cards ≥฿50k: 21–33 through Jul–Sep, with no decline.
Graded vs raw:
- JP (SNKRDunk): PSA 10 30D −4.7% vs raw −1.9%. Monthly sale index from the June peak: PSA 10 −26.7%, raw −24.5%.
- US (PriceCharting): PSA 10 30D −3.8% (EN −3.6%) vs ungraded EN −2.7%; 60D PSA 10 EN −3.3% vs ungraded EN −1.0%.
- Graded is slightly weaker than raw, but not dramatically.
Answer:
- The most expensive prints are holding value better than the middle. Over 30D, >฿50k is −2.5% while ฿500–10k is −7% to −9%. The same holds within each language: EN >฿50k −2.5% vs EN ฿500–10k −7% to −9%; JP >฿50k −2.6% vs JP ฿3k–50k −11% to −13%.
- The high end is not immune:
- JP >฿50k is −7.6% over 90D (median −23.8%, 73% down).
- yuyu-tei cut its JP ≥฿50k list prices a median −35% over 30D (n=13).
- The grails still trade at very high prices (see §9).
9. Recent sales vs current listings
9.1 Japan
JP prints worth ≥฿3k that are mapped to SNKRDunk: 227 prints, 121 of them with ≥1 raw sale since 21 Aug (468 sales).
| Comparison | Median ratio | p25–p75 | Share >1.25× | Share <0.8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas Est ÷ recent SNKRDunk raw sale median | 1.02 | 0.95–1.18 | 17% | 7% |
| SNKRDunk lowest used ask ÷ recent sale median | 0.81 | 0.66–0.92 | 5% | 49% |
| yuyu-tei sell price ÷ recent sale median | 0.95 | 0.82–1.08 | 8% | 23% |
| Atlas Est ÷ yuyu-tei | 1.15 | 1.02–1.34 | 34% | 1% |
- The SNKRDunk lowest ask spans all used conditions, so it leans low.
- JP asks, both marketplace and retail, now sit at or below where sales cleared over the last month. Atlas Est sits on recent sales but ~15% above yuyu-tei's cut prices, so the estimate is lagging the ask side down.
- If asks lead sales (an inference, not a measurement), JP sold prices have further to adjust.
9.2 Highest-value JP prints
Est / last raw sale / 30D median (sales) / lowest ask (listings) / yuyu-tei, in yen.
| Atlas Est | Last sale | Median (n) | Lowest ask (listings) | yuyu-tei | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| jp-EB04-061_p3 Luffy | ¥1,654,303 | ¥1,480,000 (17 Sep) | ¥1,825,000 (10) | ¥1,200,000 (13) | ¥1,480,000 |
| jp-OP05-119_p7 Luffy | ¥1,163,177 | ¥1,111,111 (17 Sep) | ¥1,111,111 (1) | ¥1,199,999 (17) | ¥1,280,000 |
| jp-OP13-119_p3 Ace | ¥563,372 | ¥760,000 (8 Sep) | ¥725,000 (2) | ¥530,000 (11) | ¥598,000 |
| jp-OP17-118_p2 Xebec | ¥562,881 | ¥690,000 (19 Sep) | ¥638,999 (10) | ¥585,000 (21) | ¥498,000 |
| jp-OP13-120_p3 Sabo | ¥439,444 | ¥550,000 (27 Aug) | ¥550,000 (1) | ¥600,000 (9) | ¥298,000 |
| jp-OP05-060_p4 Luffy | ¥264,609 | ¥370,000 (8 Sep) | ¥370,000 (1) | ¥210,000 (25) | ¥198,000 |
| jp-OP13-118_p2 Luffy | ¥213,553 | ¥250,000 (7 Sep) | ¥240,000 (3) | ¥130,000 (49) | ¥178,000 |
| jp-OP16-065_p2 Sakazuki | ¥192,684 | ¥180,000 (15 Sep) | ¥210,000 (3) | ¥135,000 (35) | ¥148,000 |
| jp-OP17-022_p2 Shanks | ¥185,385 | ¥185,000 (19 Sep) | ¥177,500 (10) | ¥165,868 (12) | ¥178,000 |
| jp-OP16-073_p2 Borsalino | ¥180,855 | ¥149,999 (18 Sep) | ¥196,728 (6) | ¥145,000 (31) | ¥148,000 |
| jp-OP05-069_r1 Law | ¥172,509 | ¥134,999 (8 Sep) | ¥134,999 (1) | ¥79,800 (27) | — |
| jp-OP11-118_p2 Luffy | ¥159,039 | ¥120,000 (19 Sep) | ¥120,000 (1) | ¥93,800 (41) | ¥148,000 |
9.3 The Last-sales tape (10–20 Sep)
- Composition: the newest 3,000 recorded sales span 10–20 Sep: 2,917 from SNKRDunk and 83 from eBay; 2,219 graded and 781 raw. Recent visible trade is dominated by Japanese graded slabs.
- Raw sales since 7 Sep (cards with est ≥฿1k, n=395): median sale ÷ Atlas Est = 0.91. 12 sales were ≥1.5× the estimate and 25 were ≤0.6×.
- Largest single transactions, all SNKRDunk, PSA 10 unless noted:
- jp-OP13-118_p3 Luffy: ฿604,675 (18 Sep).
- jp-EB04-061 serial Luffy: ฿583,459 (14 Sep), ฿530,417 (15 Sep), ฿403,117 (13 Sep), ฿358,562 (17 Sep), ฿339,467 (20 Sep).
- jp-OP05-119_p7 Luffy: ฿417,969 (14 Sep), ฿403,117 (17 Sep).
- jp-OP14-112 championship Hancock: ฿403,117 (13 Sep).
- Raw jp-EB04-061_p3: ฿381,900 and ฿372,471 (1.06–1.09× its estimate).
- These are the "surprisingly high" prints. Grail-level JP slabs keep trading at record-scale prices while the broad market softens.
- Unusually low (possibly distressed) sales:
- jp-OP16-032 flagship Hancock: ฿31.8k vs est ฿84.9k (0.38×).
- jp-EB03-006_p1: ฿2.8k vs ฿6.4k (0.43×, twice).
- jp-ST21-001_p1: ฿5.3k vs ฿10.0k (0.53×).
- jp-ST30-001_p1 Luffy & Ace: ฿9.5k vs ฿16.6k (0.58×).
- Unusually high but almost certainly mapping errors, not market signal (see §12):
- ST04-003 championship print: raw sale ฿594k vs est ฿1.3k.
- jp-OP16-032_p2: 8 sales at ฿34–38k vs est ฿1.06k.
9.4 US and EU
- TCGplayer's cheapest listings now sit at the market (sales-based) price for ≥฿10k cards (0.99×), down from 1.23× in May.
- Cardmarket's lowest offers sit 14% below trend (0.86×).
- Visible listings are not stale-high: sellers have been meeting or undercutting recent sales.
- An EN eBay-sold vs estimate comparison was attempted but dropped. Title matching pulls in sibling prints and distorts per-print medians.
10. OP17
Released JP 22 Aug and EN 28 Aug (Atlas release data). The set id includes SP/super-parallel reprints found in OP17 boxes.
10.1 Current state (20 Sep)
| JP | EN | |
|---|---|---|
| Priced prints | 169 | 164 |
| Atlas value | $20.5k (฿0.68M) | $42.9k (฿1.43M) |
| 7D VW / median / down | −8.65% / −3.03% / 88.8% (n=169) | −1.94% / −5.54% / 57.4% (n=162) |
| 14D VW / median / down | −13.15% / 0% / 37.2% (17.1% up) | −2.42% / −9.77% / 66.2% |
| 21D VW / median / down | −4.84% / +3.23% / 26.9% | −7.45% / −20.69% / 77.3% |
EN value rose from $14.5k (24 Aug) to $48.0k (6 Sep) as EN prices appeared. That is price discovery, not appreciation; only like-for-like moves are read as market movement.
10.2 Trajectory from release (JP)
Atlas Est, USD, value-weighted, ~165 prints.
| Date | 25 Aug | 29 Aug | 1 Sep | 5 Sep | 8 Sep | 12 Sep | 15 Sep | 20 Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leg | −18.1% | −10.2% | +2.2% | +6.7% | −4.9% | +0.1% | −1.3% | −7.8% |
| Cumulative | −18.1% | −26.5% | −24.9% | −19.8% | −23.8% | −23.7% | −24.7% | −30.6% |
The last leg is ~−6% in yen terms.
yuyu-tei (JP retail, yen, 167 prints): cumulative −27.0% (25 Aug), −28.5%, flat, −34.2% (8 Sep), −34.1%, −40.3% (20 Sep). Chase prints roughly halved from launch:
Print Launch 20 Sep OP17-118_p2 Xebec ¥998,000 ¥498,000 OP17-022_p2 Shanks ¥348,000 ¥178,000 OP17-079_p2 Luffy ¥248,000 ¥128,000 OP17-062_p2 Kaido ¥198,000 ¥99,800 OP17-112_p2 Linlin ¥178,000 ¥79,800 EB04-061_p3 Luffy (OP17 box) ¥1.98M ¥1.48M SNKRDunk raw (JP sales, yen): peaked +20% on 1 Sep (only 5 prints then), then legs of −1.7%, −6.8%, −1.5% and −2.6% on ~50 prints. That is ≈ −16% from the early-September high.
SNKRDunk supply and trade: OP17 listings 714 → 910 (+27.5%, 27 Aug → 20 Sep). OP17 was 11–43 of the 200–390 sales recorded per day on the tape (10–20 Sep); the high was 43 sales and ฿1.14M on 17 Sep.
10.3 EN
TCGplayer EN, value-weighted: 24→28 Aug −11.3% and 28 Aug→1 Sep −39.8% on the 44 prints listed pre-release (cumulative −46.6%). Since 1 Sep (~152 prints) the legs are −0.8%, −0.3%, −0.4%, −0.2% and −0.3%, with 44–62% of prints down each leg. The EN unwind was fast and front-loaded; the drift since is small but still negative.
10.4 JP vs EN, high-end vs low-end
| Tier (JP, 14D) | VW | Tier (EN, 14D) | VW |
|---|---|---|---|
| ฿500–3k | −25.2% | ฿500–3k | −13.6% |
| ฿3k–10k | −21.8% | ฿3k–10k | −9.1% |
| ฿10k–50k | −18.3% | ฿10k–50k | −8.5% |
| ≥฿50k | −11.2% | ≥฿50k | −1.4% |
| <฿500 | −4.2% | <฿500 | −8.5% |
Weakest prints (≥฿500):
- JP, 7D:
- OP17-118 Xebec SEC −50.1%
- OP17-118_p1 −38.6%
- OP13-028_p2 Shanks SP −34.2%
- ST31-004_p1 Luffy SP −29.1%
- OP17-079_p2 Luffy leader alt-art −27.1%
- EN, 14D:
- OP17-119 Loki SEC −49.8%
- OP17-048_p1 Shiki −35.8%
- OP17-118 Xebec −23.8%
Strongest prints:
- JP, 7D:
- OP17-049_p1 Linlin +7.7%
- P-107_p1 Roger SP +7.0%
- OP17-005_p2 Newgate manga −1.9%
- OP17-022_p2 Shanks manga −3.8%
- EN:
- OP17-119_p1 Loki alt-art +13.3% (7D)
- OP17-022_p2 Shanks manga +12.6% (14D, $1,521 → $1,677)
10.5 Compared with earlier launches
EN (TCGplayer, value-weighted from each set's first priced week):
| Set | Week 1 | Week 4 | Week 8 | Week 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OP06 | −30% | −36% | −49% | −55% |
| OP07 | −43% | −60% | −64% | −67% |
| OP08 | −20% | −28% | −38% | −46% |
| OP09 | −33% | −39% | −41% | −38% |
| OP10 | −31% | −40% | −53% | −53% |
| OP11 | −44% | −57% | −61% | −63% |
| OP12 | −35% | −41% | −46% | −44% |
| OP13 | −33% | −40% | −29% | −13% |
| OP16 | −44% | −47% | −50% | −54% |
| OP17 | −1% (after a −47% presale unwind) | — | — | — |
JP (yuyu-tei, from release + 7 days): OP16 was cumulative −5.8% by week 3 and −20.5% by week 8. OP17 is −7.8% by week 3; measured from release day, −40.3% in four weeks.
Verdict on OP17:
- JP: still unwinding, and not slowing. The latest week was one of the larger drops for both Atlas Est and yuyu-tei. There is no floor in the data yet, and supply on SNKRDunk is growing.
- EN: stabilized in level after a fast presale unwind comparable in size to past launches (~−47%), with a slow downward drift.
- History: a 40–60% decline over the first 2–3 months has been the norm for EN launches since OP06. OP13 is the one recent set that recovered most of it.
11. Biggest movers
Evidence-gated lists. Rules:
- At least $20 at both ends, and at least 2 estimate sources.
- At least one stable marketplace moved the same way (≥3%) and none moved the opposite way. Stable marketplaces: TCGplayer, Cardmarket, PriceCharting, yuyu-tei, SNKRDunk, eBay.
- The raw price moved the same way as the chain-linked move.
- The magnitude is within 2.5× the strongest marketplace move.
"Obs" counts price observations in the window across those marketplaces. Ungated raw lists are unreliable: of 1,620 prints ≥$20 at both ends over 7D, 5 moved >50% and only 2 of those had any marketplace confirmation. Over 30D, 28 moved >50% and 8 were confirmed.
11.1 Top 20 gainers, 7D
| # | Set / lang / rarity | Prior → now | Move | Confirming markets | Obs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jp-OP08-098_p2 Kalgara | EB02 · JP · L | $100.74 → $124.26 (฿4,137) | +23.4% | Cardmarket +22.4% | 5 |
| 2 | jp-OP09-106_p1 Nico Olvia | promos · JP · C | $36.34 → $42.30 | +16.4% | yuyu +25.1% | 2 |
| 3 | OP05-002_p1 Belo Betty | OP05 · EN · L | $32.37 → $36.92 | +14.1% | TCG +3.3%, CM +41.7%, PC +13.0% | 7 |
| 4 | OP13-119_p1 Ace | OP13 · EN · SEC | $20.67 → $23.34 | +12.9% | CM +31.4% | 7 |
| 5 | EB01-014_p1 Sanji | promos · EN · R | $70.71 → $78.96 | +11.7% | PC +30.5% | 4 |
| 6 | ST01-012_p3 Luffy (gold signature) | OP05 · EN · SR | $6,184 → $6,893 (฿229,482) | +11.5% | CM +20.9% | 4 |
| 7 | jp-OP16-119_p1 Teach | OP16 · JP · SEC | $36.18 → $40.22 | +11.2% | yuyu +20.1% | 10 |
| 8 | OP14-104_p1 Gecko Moria | OP14-EB04 · EN · SR | $24.76 → $27.25 | +10.1% | CM +16.7%, PC +28.7%, PSA10 +6.1% | 16 |
| 9 | OP09-077_p2 Gum-Gum Lightning | limited · EN · UC | $27.03 → $29.63 | +9.6% | TCG +9.6% | 5 |
| 10 | OP05-073_p3 Miss Doublefinger | PRB01 · EN · UC | $23.28 → $25.40 | +9.1% | TCG +11.3% | 6 |
| 11 | jp-EB04-058_p1 Borsalino | EB04 · JP · SR | $42.73 → $46.61 | +9.1% | CM +4.7%, yuyu +25.1% | 13 |
| 12 | OP01-016_p1 Nami | OP01 · EN · R | $663.40 → $722.76 (฿24,061) | +9.0% | CM +14.2% | 3 |
| 13 | OP02-062_p1 Luffy | OP02 · EN · SR | $76.66 → $82.93 | +8.2% | CM +18.5% | 3 |
| 14 | OP05-093_p2 Rob Lucci SP | OP09 · EN · SP | $87.53 → $94.55 | +8.0% | CM +19.2% | 1 |
| 15 | ST03-007 championship Sentomaru | ST03 · EN | $23.80 → $25.62 | +7.7% | eBay +24.4% | 7 |
| 16 | OP11-040_p1 Luffy | OP11 · EN · L | $56.27 → $60.36 | +7.3% | CM +5.1% | 15 |
| 17 | OP11-022_p1 Shirahoshi | OP11 · EN · L | $23.62 → $25.27 | +7.0% | TCG +13.0%, PC +12.8% | 9 |
| 18 | EB02-017_p1 Nami | EB02 · EN · R | $122.39 → $130.95 | +7.0% | TCG +3.3%, CM +15.1%, PC +8.0% | 4 |
| 19 | OP02-013_p3 Ace SP | OP08 · EN · SP | $241.95 → $258.58 | +6.9% | CM +20.2% | 4 |
| 20 | EB02-006 promo Yamato | EB02 · EN | $49.59 → $52.94 | +6.8% | eBay +48.9% | 12 |
11.2 Top 20 losers, 7D
| # | Set / lang / rarity | Prior → now | Move | Confirming markets | Obs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OP11-067_p3 Katakuri SP | OP16 · EN · SP | $146.00 → $78.52 | −46.2% | eBay −19.6% | 7 |
| 2 | jp-OP06-021_p2 Perona | EB02 · JP · L | $354.27 → $201.53 (฿6,709) | −43.1% | yuyu −40.2% | 4 |
| 3 | jp-OP13-040 alt-art promo (event) | missing-additions · JP | $41.00 → $24.48 | −40.3% | SNKR raw −48.8%, SNKR PSA10 −38.8% | 2 |
| 4 | jp-OP17-118_p1 Xebec | OP17 · JP · SEC | $33.62 → $20.65 | −38.6% | yuyu −30.1%, SNKR −45.4% | 11 |
| 5 | jp-OP08-023_p2 Carrot SP | PRB02 · JP · SP | $34.59 → $21.25 | −38.6% | CM −5.3%, PC −25.6% | 6 |
| 6 | jp-OP02-062_p1 Luffy | OP02 · JP · SR | $31.91 → $20.60 | −35.4% | yuyu −40.2%, SNKR −65.6% | 16 |
| 7 | jp-ST21-001_p2 Luffy | limited · JP · L | $389.33 → $253.66 (฿8,444) | −34.8% | CM −12.4%, yuyu −33.4%, SNKR PSA10 −38.2% | 12 |
| 8 | jp-OP13-028_p2 Shanks SP | OP17 · JP · SP | $245.48 → $161.53 | −34.2% | yuyu −37.7%, SNKR −25.7% | 2 |
| 9 | jp-OP16-032_p1 Hancock | OP16 · JP · SR | $47.29 → $31.52 | −33.3% | PC −35.9%, eBay −3.3%, PSA10 −5.9% | 11 |
| 10 | jp-OP09-093_p5 Teach SP | OP12 · JP · SP | $1,420.86 → $967.95 (฿32,223) | −31.9% | yuyu −40.3% | 3 |
| 11 | jp-OP05-098_p2 Enel | promos · JP · L | $324.23 → $221.79 | −31.6% | yuyu −30.1% | 1 |
| 12 | jp-ST31-004_p1 Luffy SP | OP17 · JP · SP | $671.50 → $476.15 (฿15,851) | −29.1% | yuyu −20.0%, SNKR −36.2% | 3 |
| 13 | jp-OP07-038_p2 Hancock | EB02 · JP · L | $1,378.34 → $985.56 (฿32,809) | −28.5% | yuyu −59.8%, PSA10 −15.5%, SNKR PSA10 −6.5% | 6 |
| 14 | ST01-006_p2 Chopper | limited · EN · C | $31.07 → $22.24 | −28.4% | CM −37.3%, PC −10.1%, PSA10 −17.1% | 8 |
| 15 | jp-OP17-079_p2 Luffy | OP17 · JP · L | $1,147.07 → $836.03 (฿27,831) | −27.1% | yuyu −28.1%, SNKR −22.4% | 3 |
| 16 | jp-OP05-060_p4 Luffy | EB02 · JP · L | $2,265.19 → $1,686.81 (฿56,154) | −25.5% | yuyu −50.3% | 5 |
| 17 | jp-OP13-120_p2 Sabo SP | OP13 · JP · SEC | $635.58 → $479.09 (฿15,949) | −24.6% | yuyu −40.1% | 9 |
| 18 | jp-ST13-003_p1 Luffy | ST13 · JP · L | $113.25 → $86.00 | −24.1% | yuyu −40.3% | 15 |
| 19 | jp-OP07-073_p1 Luffy | promos · JP · R | $64.81 → $49.26 | −24.0% | CM −9.6%, yuyu −40.1%, PSA10 −26.9% | 5 |
| 20 | jp-ST32-002_p1 Oden SP | OP17 · JP · SP | $160.64 → $122.57 | −23.7% | yuyu −33.6% | 1 |
11.3 Top 20 gainers, 30D
| # | Set / lang / rarity | Prior → now | Move | Confirming markets | Obs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OP15-078_p1 Mamaragan | OP15-EB04 · EN · SR | $32.37 → $49.98 | +49.9% | TCG +35.3%, CM +44.3%, PC +41.8%, eBay +9.6%, PSA10 +4.3% | 72 |
| 2 | OP09-076_p2 Zoro | PRB02 · EN · R | $32.26 → $48.62 | +39.3% | CM +55.8% | 46 |
| 3 | OP09-106_p4 Nico Olvia | promos · EN · C | $35.88 → $53.68 | +34.4% | TCG +60.8%, PC +28.6% | 27 |
| 4 | OP02-035_p1 Law | promos · EN · C | $33.95 → $41.86 | +32.8% | CM +62.9%, PC +180%, PSA10 +158.8% | 28 |
| 5 | OP08-058_p1 Charlotte Pudding (leader) | OP08 · EN · L | $35.42 → $52.59 | +32.0% | TCG +49.7%, CM +22.9%, PC +40.5%, eBay +39.2% | 72 |
| 6 | OP05-119_p6 Luffy (Wanted Poster SP) | OP09 · EN · SP | $660.18 → $948.55 (฿31,577) | +30.8% | eBay +16.3%, PSA10 +3.2% | 47 |
| 7 | OP10-087 pre-release Chopper | OP10 · EN | $25.31 → $41.43 | +29.1% | CM +50.3% | 33 |
| 8 | OP09-009_p2 Benn Beckman | promos · EN · SR | $449.88 → $534.96 (฿17,809) | +26.6% | TCG +3.4%, CM +15.2% | 7 |
| 9 | OP13-119 championship Ace | OP13 · EN | $272.69 → $347.76 (฿11,577) | +25.9% | CM +50.4% | 9 |
| 10 | OP05-063 anniversary O-Robi | OP05 · EN | $128.44 → $135.37 | +24.4% | CM +19.7%, eBay +19.9% | 27 |
| 11 | OP07-033 pre-release Luffy | OP07 · EN | $47.02 → $51.14 | +21.1% | CM +8.7%, eBay +15.2% | 27 |
| 12 | OP05-098_p2 Enel (SPR) | EB02 · EN · L | $711.77 → $850.23 (฿28,304) | +20.1% | TCG +5.5%, CM +30.9%, PC +31.1% | 14 |
| 13 | ST04-003 championship Kaido | ST04 · EN | $23.47 → $32.70 | +19.3% | eBay +64.4% | 30 |
| 14 | OP05-067 championship Zoro-Juurou | OP05 · EN | $119.79 → $130.93 | +18.0% | CM +12.1%, PC +15.1%, PSA10 +18.5% | 23 |
| 15 | jp-P-113 promo Bonney | promo · JP | $27.51 → $29.13 | +17.7% | eBay +12.1% | 40 |
| 16 | jp-OP05-074_p3 Kid SP | OP07 · JP · SP | $30.54 → $35.64 | +16.6% | CM +20.5%, eBay +41.9%, SNKR PSA10 +8.7% | 33 |
| 17 | OP09-077_p2 Gum-Gum Lightning | limited · EN · UC | $24.34 → $29.63 | +15.8% | TCG +21.7%, PC +86.4% | 32 |
| 18 | EB01-014_p1 Sanji | promos · EN · R | $68.58 → $78.96 | +15.3% | TCG +4.1%, PC +35.7%, PSA10 +38.6% | 21 |
| 19 | EB01-003_p3 Kid & Killer | promos · EN · R | $81.58 → $93.80 | +14.5% | TCG +13.8%, CM +24.0%, PC +4.5% | 21 |
| 20 | OP08-036_p1 Electrical Luna | limited · EN · R | $30.35 → $34.22 | +14.3% | TCG +27.1%, PC +198% | 23 |
11.4 Top 20 losers, 30D
| # | Set / lang / rarity | Prior → now | Move | Confirming markets | Obs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jp-OP08-001_p2 Chopper | EB02 · JP · L | $1,262.98 → $495.49 (฿16,495) | −62.5% | SNKR raw −50.0%, SNKR PSA10 −51.8% | 21 |
| 2 | OP16-022_p1 Luffy | OP16 · EN · L | $88.72 → $42.16 | −55.3% | TCG −37.3%, CM −14.2%, PC −50.3%, eBay −18.3%, PSA10 −76.5% | 73 |
| 3 | jp-OP16-065_p2 Sakazuki | OP16 · JP · SR | $2,684.64 → $1,228.31 (฿40,890) | −54.3% | yuyu −70.3% | 18 |
| 4 | jp-OP16-032_p1 Hancock | OP16 · JP · SR | $68.29 → $31.52 | −50.3% | PC −54.6%, yuyu −37.6% | 47 |
| 5 | ST01-008_p2 Robin | limited · EN · C | $66.21 → $37.73 | −48.7% | TCG −32.4%, PC −31.6%, eBay −33.6%, PSA10 −27.9% | 68 |
| 6 | jp-OP16-042_p1 Prisoner of Impel Down | OP16 · JP · TR | $68.83 → $35.71 | −46.9% | yuyu −56.4% | 43 |
| 7 | jp-ST30-001_p1 Luffy & Ace | ST30 · JP · L | $848.02 → $497.55 (฿16,563) | −45.1% | yuyu −50.1%, eBay −9.7% | 46 |
| 8 | jp-OP16-063_p2 Kuzan | OP16 · JP · R | $1,856.03 → $989.70 (฿32,947) | −44.7% | PC −8.3%, yuyu −40.3%, PSA10 −11.3% | 13 |
| 9 | jp-OP16-073_p2 Borsalino | OP16 · JP · R | $2,042.47 → $1,152.90 (฿38,380) | −43.7% | PC −39.9%, yuyu −40.3%, eBay −59.9% | 37 |
| 10 | jp-OP14-029_p1 Tashigi SP | OP16 · JP · SP | $96.66 → $45.79 | −43.7% | CM −18.7%, PC −54.5% | 54 |
| 11 | jp-OP13-120_p2 Sabo SP | OP13 · JP · SEC | $808.30 → $479.09 (฿15,949) | −40.8% | CM −13.2%, yuyu −53.3% | 45 |
| 12 | jp-ST15-005_p1 Ace SP | OP16 · JP · SP | $188.18 → $113.44 | −39.8% | yuyu −40.3%, eBay −88.5% | 37 |
| 13 | jp-OP10-065_p1 Sugar SP | OP14 · JP · SP | $78.79 → $45.73 | −39.2% | PC −11.1%, yuyu −53.3%, PSA10 −21.3% | 18 |
| 14 | jp-OP16-032_p2 Hancock | promos · JP · SR | $50.39 → $31.74 | −37.6% | yuyu −37.6% | 10 |
| 15 | jp-OP16-118_p1 Ace | OP16 · JP · SEC | $45.76 → $28.42 | −36.8% | CM −18.8%, PC −61.5%, yuyu −37.6%, eBay −37.7% | 53 |
| 16 | jp-OP13-118_p2 Luffy | OP13 · JP · SEC | $2,024.61 → $1,361.34 (฿45,319) | −35.6% | PC −7.2%, yuyu −48.9% | 28 |
| 17 | jp-OP09-070_p1 Nami | limited · JP · UC | $80.38 → $42.23 | −35.4% | CM −50.8%, PC −35.5%, SNKR −61.7%, PSA10 −29.4% | 42 |
| 18 | jp-OP16-022_p1 Luffy | OP16 · JP · L | $128.05 → $64.69 | −35.2% | CM −13.6%, PC −62.2%, yuyu −32.6%, eBay −54.6% | 51 |
| 19 | jp-OP14-084_p2 Ms. All Sunday SP | OP16 · JP · SP | $410.96 → $222.35 | −35.1% | yuyu −30.1% | 43 |
| 20 | ST01-006_p2 Chopper | limited · EN · C | $33.07 → $22.24 | −35.1% | TCG −11.0%, CM −40.4%, PC −27.5%, PSA10 −39.5% | 36 |
Patterns:
- 7D losers: 17 of 20 are JP prints, mostly confirmed by yuyu-tei cuts (−20% to −60%) and SNKRDunk. They are JP leaders, SPs and alt-art SECs across OP17 boxes, EB02, OP13 and Luffy variants: a JP chase repricing.
- 7D gainers: 14 of 20 are EN, with modest moves (+7% to +23%), usually confirmed by one market (mostly Cardmarket) with 1–16 observations. That is weak evidence, and no theme.
- 30D losers: 11 of 20 are OP16-box prints, in JP and EN: the OP16 post-launch unwind.
- 30D gainers: EN older-set, tournament, pre-release and promo prints, plus a few competitive leaders. OP08 Pudding and OP15-078 Mamaragan are confirmed by 4–5 markets. These are idiosyncratic, not a sector rotation.
12. Anomalies
| # | What | Evidence | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jp-ST01-012_p3 Luffy (gold signature) +170.5% 30D ($2,147 → $5,489) | CM +30%, PC +40% | Estimate composition change. The direction is real but the size isn't; inputs were admitted or re-weighted |
| 2 | jp-OP01-120_p4 Shanks +81.8% 30D ($4.2k → $7.6k) | PC flat, PC PSA 10 −5.5% | Contradicted: estimate behavior, not market |
| 3 | OP10-033_p2 Nami −60.8% 30D ($6,166 → $2,416; −$3.75k) | PC −41%, CardTrader +231%, PC PSA 10 +157% | Contested: a source or mapping conflict. One card is 14% of the 30D net decline |
| 4 | OP05-119_p2 Luffy manga +43.1% 30D (+$3.55k) | CM +22%, PC flat | Contested: likely inputs, not a +43% market move |
| 5 | OP05 set +22.9% and EB01 set +6.3% 30D | driven by #1, #4 and EB01-006_p2 (contested) | Not set-wide strength; the medians are ≤0 |
| 6 | OP07-109_p4 Luffy −46%, jp-OP13-118_p5 −5.3% (−$1.7k), OP11-119_p2 −37% (30D) | no marketplace moved ≥3% | Unconfirmed estimate moves |
| 7 | ST04-003 championship print: SNKRDunk raw sale ฿594,067 vs est ฿1,343 (×442) | single sale, 20 Sep | Mapping issue: the SNKRDunk item is almost certainly a different print |
| 8 | jp-OP16-032_p2: 8 SNKRDunk sales at ฿34–38k vs est ฿1,057 (×32–36) | repeated | Mapping issue, most likely a different (rarer) print bound to this apparel |
| 9 | Cardmarket JP OP17 basket +34.5% then −47.6% week-to-week | only 1–2 of 90 prints moved | Single-print flip, artifact |
| 10 | yuyu-tei −16.7% VW in 7D | a few expensive prints; the 20 Sep scrape was a manual run | Genuine retail repricing, one retailer. SNKRDunk confirms the direction on many prints, not all |
| 11 | eBay inputs in estimates 1,709 (22 Jul) → 138 (20 Sep) | rule change 11–13 Sep: "a comp must prove it is this card", lots/slabs out, <3 comps rejected | Methodology change. Estimates lean less on eBay now; not a market signal |
| 12 | PriceCharting JP series flat 26 Jul–6 Sep, then daily from 11 Sep | PC JP 14D +4.0% | Refresh catch-up, not a JP move |
| 13 | Yahoo Auctions JP snapshot stale since 24 Jul; CardTrader catalogue stale 26 Aug → refreshed 20 Sep | — | Coverage gaps |
| 14 | Atlas Est snapshots not daily before 22 Aug (gaps up to 5 days) | row counts per day | Weekly legs before late August span uneven days |
| 15 | Version-day recalcs | v5.7 18 Jun +1.76%, v6.1 16 Jul +1.36%, v6.2 6 Sep −0.72%, v6.3 7 Sep −2.28%, v6.4 11 Sep −0.86% of cap | Excluded from all returns by chain-linking; still visible in the raw market-cap line |
| 16 | 264 prints lost their estimate on 7 Sep (v6.3) | still in the site's published 7D moves at 0% | Excluded from current-basket statistics here |
| 17 | Big moves on 1–2 observations | e.g. jp-OP09-106_p1 +16.4% (2 obs), OP05-093_p2 +8.0% (1 obs) | Low evidence; keep out of headlines |
| 18 | eBay comps, week of 5 Jul (23 per 100 cards vs ~10 after) | harvest-window edge | Excluded |
13. Historical context
EN: TCGplayer like-for-like index. Weekly, value-weighted, clipped; 4,073-card archive from Feb 2024 spliced with daily history from May 2026. Feb 2024 = 100.
| Date | Index | Date | Index | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2024 | 98.3 | Jan 2026 | 62.1 | |
| Jun 2024 | 76.0 | Apr 2026 | 68.3 | |
| Sep 2024 | 53.7 | 7 Jun 2026 | 78.2 | |
| Dec 2024 | 46.7 | 19 Jul 2026 | 85.4 | |
| Aug 2025 (trough) | 40.6 | 9 Aug 2026 (peak) | 91.6 | |
| Dec 2025 | 54.2 | 20 Sep 2026 | 89.4 |
- Returns to 20 Sep: 4 weeks −0.9%, 8 weeks +5.0%, 13 weeks +11.4%, 26 weeks +33.6%, 52 weeks +119.0%.
- Weekly path since the peak: −1.0%, −0.5%, −0.5%, −0.4%, +0.2%, −0.2%. More cards fell than rose in each of these weeks (e.g. 20 Sep: 21% up, 38% down).
- Comparable phase: EN went through an 18-month drawdown from Feb 2024 to Aug 2025, −59%. Most 2024 weeks had 38–51% of cards falling against 22–33% rising. The current EN phase (−2.4% from the peak) is a pause after a doubling, not a repeat of 2024.
JP: SNKRDunk monthly repeat-sales index. Yen; 2023-01 = 100. This is indicative only: sale-based chain indices carry an upward bias, and the number of matched cards grows over time.
| Month | Raw A | PSA 10 |
|---|---|---|
| Apr–May 2024 | 161 | 162 |
| Apr 2025 | 55 | 73 |
| Aug 2025 | 51 | 64 (trough) |
| Oct 2025 | 47 (trough) | 77 |
| Jan 2026 | 99 | 140 |
| Apr 2026 | 107 | 150 |
| May 2026 | 157 | 214 |
| Jun 2026 (peak) | 188 | 266 |
| Jul 2026 | 176 | 241 |
| Aug 2026 | 142 (66% of 505 matched cards down) | 195 (82% of 604 down) |
- JP roughly quadrupled from its late-2025 trough to June 2026. It is now −25% (raw) and −27% (PSA 10) from that peak, with August's declines broad-based.
- The previous JP correction (Apr 2024 → Oct 2025) took the raw index down ~71%.
JP trading breadth (share of established cards trading weekly):
| Period | Share |
|---|---|
| 2024–mid 2025 | ~8–12% |
| Dec 2025–Apr 2026 | ~16–23% |
| May–Jun 2026 (peak) | 35–40% |
| Aug 2026 | ~21.5% |
Launch pattern: see §10.5. EN launches since OP06 typically lose 20–44% in week 1 and 40–60% within 2–3 months. OP13 (recovered to −13% by week 12), PRB02 (+71% by week 16) and EB02 (flat) are the exceptions.
What can't be compared:
- Atlas Est exists only from May 2026, so there is no multi-source view of 2024–25.
- There is no volume series before September 2026 other than SNKRDunk's weekly trade indicator.
14. Evidence vs unknowns
Evidence we have
- Market-wide price direction: Atlas Est like-for-like, 7–90D, value-weighted, median and breadth, with a marketplace-confirmation robustness check.
- The JP vs EN divergence, including the yen effect on JP estimates.
- Direction by marketplace in its own currency:
- US: TCGplayer, PriceCharting, eBay.
- EU: Cardmarket, CardTrader.
- Japan: yuyu-tei, SNKRDunk.
- Japanese liquidity:
- SNKRDunk active listing counts and lowest asks for 9.8k items (daily history since May).
- Weekly trading activity back to 2022.
- Individual sales for ~2k items (recent weeks).
- eBay sold frequency per card per week (Jul–Sep, ~2.9k cards).
- US/EU ask-vs-sold spreads over time (TCGplayer, Cardmarket).
- Set, character, print-type and value-tier breakdowns; concentration of value and of the move.
- OP17 in JP and EN; launch comparisons (EN TCGplayer since 2024, JP yuyu-tei for OP16 and OP17).
- The highest recent transactions, and sales far from their estimate.
Questions Atlas cannot answer
Anything measured in Thailand:
- Thai prices.
- Thai transaction volume in Facebook groups, LINE, shops or events.
- Offline, cash and private trades.
The Facebook-auction pipeline captured 445 posts in May 2026 and extracted no sales.
Returns in THB. Atlas keeps no THB/USD history, so what a Thai collector sees in baht can't be separated from the USD numbers.
Whether Pokémon, or anything outside One Piece, is drawing spend away. Atlas tracks no other game, and correlation in timing would not be causation.
Who is buying and selling, and why: collector sentiment, "stronger hands", accumulation or holding intent. Atlas has no ownership or order-book data; listing counts exist only for SNKRDunk.
True sales volume on TCGplayer and Cardmarket. Atlas sees prices and lowest asks, not counts.
Complete transaction counts for the hottest JP cards. SNKRDunk exposes the last 10 sales per grade per fetch.
Market-wide multi-source levels before May 2026. Only single-source archives exist.
Why yuyu-tei is cutting. It could be demand, its own inventory or buy-list policy; Atlas sees list prices only.
Whether asks will pull sold prices lower. The ask-leads-sales reading is an inference from the spreads, not an observation.
Disclaimer
OP-Atlas is an independent project and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or associated with Bandai, Shueisha, Toei Animation, or the One Piece intellectual property holders. Atlas Est. is a cross-market estimate based on available marketplace data and is not a guaranteed sale price. Data coverage, liquidity, regional availability, currency movement, listing quality and marketplace methodology can all affect estimates. Market data is provided for informational purposes only and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any card.
Content note: AI was used as a tool for data analysis, quality assurance (QA) and translation support. Final content was reviewed and edited by the OP-Atlas team.